Typhoon Melor

Pre-Landfall 5 | Summary
Posting Date: October 7, 2009, 1:00:00 PM

Typhoon Melor, which was a Category 5 storm two days ago as it churned in the Pacific, has weakened considerably as it approaches landfall on Honshu Island. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) 17:45 UTC advisory, Melor is a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 160 kph (100 mph), although the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has downgraded the storm to Category 1 status, with winds of 140 kph (87 mph). Yesterday, Melor, which had been heading northwest, began to gradually to turn to the north and then to the northeast. It is currently located approximately 400 km (250 miles) southwest of Tokyo and is moving northeast at a speed of 50 kph (31 mph), according to the JMA. Typhoon Melor is expected to weaken further as it continues to interact with cool waters and strong wind shear before making landfall Thursday morning, local time, as a Category 1 storm somewhere along the southern coast of the Kansai Region on Honshu Island. It is forecast to track northeast over land and transition into an extratropical system, passing northwest of Tokyo before exiting into the Pacific Ocean. Melor’s forecast track will put Tokyo on the strong side of the storm in terms of both winds and storm surge. As the storm transitions, precipitation will become more widespread, especially to the north and east of the track. Precipitation is already falling at 50 mm/h over the Tokyo region, even though the storm is still several hundred kilometers away. The large radius of tropical storm force winds, which extends over 300 km according to the JWTC, will subject most of Honshu Island to winds in excess of 64 kph (40 mph). The JMA has issued high wind and flood warnings for most of southern and central Japan, as well as high wave warnings for coastal regions. Officials expect torrential rain and warn of possible landslides. The storm has halted operations at some car plants and has disrupted some marine and overland oil shipments, although refinery production has not yet been affected. Other operations in central Japan’s Tokai region, the nation’s industrial heartland, remain on high alert. More than two hundred flights have been canceled and approximately 4300 customers lost power in southern Japan. Schools throughout the region, including those in Tokyo, are set to cancel classes on Thursday. The AIR tropical cyclone team is running the Japan typhoon model using the storm’s actual track, the latest meteorological parameters, and forecast information. ALERT subscribers will be notified when select scenarios and event sets are posted to the website.

Pre-Landfall 5 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 7, 2009, 1:00:00 PM