Typhoon Mirinae

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: October 29, 2009, 7:00:00 AM

For the fourth time in the past month, a major tropical cyclone is threatening the northern Philippines. Typhoon Mirinae is expected to make landfall on the major island of Luzon late tomorrow or early Saturday, following in the wake of last week’s Typhoon Lupit (which veered north just before reaching the island) and that of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana earlier. Together, Ketsana and Parma caused widespread death and destruction on Luzon. Typhoon Mirinae currently is a Category 2 typhoon and is about 890 kilometers (550 miles) east of Manila, according to the 11:00 am EDT Thursday, October 29th, advisory of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. With winds of 166 kilometers per hour (103 miles per hour) and gusts of 204 kph (126 mph), Mirinae is moving toward Manila at about 22 kph (14 mph). Only three days ago it was a tropical depression 500 km (200 miles) east of Guam. In the past 12 hours forecasters have become more confident that Mirinae will pass very close to Manila, probably within 100 kilometers (60 to 65 miles) and to its north. If so, the city will be on the left-hand—or weak—side of the storm. Additionally, Mirinae is now not expected to intensify significantly and may actually make landfall as a Category 1 storm. However, its close passage to Manila suggests that the city may still suffer damage. At the end of September, Tropical Storm Ketsana inundated greater Manila, causing the worst flooding the city had experienced in over 40 years. Typhoon Parma followed almost immediately. Parma stalled over Luzon, moved out over the South China Sea, and then zigzagged back and forth over the island, all the while pouring down more rain and causing more flooding and devastating landslides. Together the two storms killed more than 900 people and destroyed or damaged about 212,000 buildings; more than 120,000 people remain in evacuation centers today. Damage was widespread, including an estimated 50 million USD worth of crops and farm infrastructure. While newer buildings in central Luzon are commonly constructed of masonry or reinforced concrete, poor construction practices and low-quality materials often exacerbate building damage. Also, residential construction is dominated by traditional materials, making common homes highly vulnerable to both wind and water damage. However, these buildings are not likely to be insured. Luzon is the Philippines’ rice granary, accounting for about 20% of the country’s total rice production. Ketsana and Parma destroyed about USD 40 million worth of the crop. It is now the harvest season, so farmers and agricultural officials are concerned about the flooding impact Typhoon Mirinae will have. At present, near its center Mirinae is generating more than 30 centimeters (12 inches) of rain per 24-hour period. Typhoon Mirinae’s landfall is expected to coincide with “All Saints’ weekend” (in the United States, “Halloween”), when many Filipinos travel to their home provinces, often by boat. Government officials have urged residents to avoid travelling and to remain at home where warnings are issued. The AIR tropical cyclone team is continuing to monitor Typhoon Mirinae’s advance and will provide additional information as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 29, 2009, 7:00:00 AM