Typhoon Mirinae

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 30, 2009, 6:00:00 AM

According to latest advisories, Typhoon Mirinae is tracking farther south than previously forecast and is expected to make landfall tonight around 18:00 UTC (early Saturday morning, local time) in Quezon province in the Calabarzon region. While this will likely spare the Philippines’s rice production heartland in northern Luzon, the slight change in track could have significant implications for the nation’s capital, Manila. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s 15:00 UTC advisory, the storm is located approximately 250 km (150 miles) east of Manila and is heading west at 24 kph (15 mph). Mirinae currently packs maximum sustained winds of 160 kph (100 mph), but is expected to weaken slightly prior to making landfall as a strong Category 1 storm, with winds around 145 kph (90 mph). The latest JTWC track forecast takes Mirinae several tens of kilometers south of Manila, rather than north as previously forecast. This track would put Manila on the right-hand (strong) side of the storm; as a result, downtown Manila may experience some of the storm’s strongest winds. In Manila, light metal buildings, as well as signs and billboards, may suffer some damage from the forecast Category 1 wind speeds. However, well-constructed masonry or reinforced concrete buildings are expected to suffer little or no damage at these wind speeds, and similarly, damage to high-rise buildings will be limited to windows. Mirinae will begin weakening after landfall, and its rapid forward speed should carry the storm across Luzon in approximately 12 hours after landfall. This may limit the total precipitation amounts, which are currently estimated from satellite imagery to be 300 mm (12 inches) in 24 hours. As Mirinae moves across the steep terrain that characterizes much of the Philippines, however, it is likely that some areas could receive significantly higher amounts, possibly in excess of 500 mm (20 inches). Schools have been closed and ferries have been grounded in advance of the storm, according to local media reports. Thousands of people in flood-prone eastern provinces, including residents in coastal areas in Quezon province and those living near rivers, have been urged to evacuate. More than 100,000 people remain in government run shelters as parts of the region remain submerged from the trio of typhoons that have affected Luzon in the last few weeks. In 2006, Typhoon Xangsane battered several islands in the northern Philippines and passed just south of Manila. Xangsane caused widespread damage and flooding and was the strongest storm to affect the Manila metro area in 11 years. In the Philippines, Xangsane was responsible for nearly 200 deaths and 118 million USD (in 2006 currency) of damage to property and crops, according to the Philippines government. The AIR tropical cyclone team is currently running the Typhoon Model for Southeast Asia using available meteorological parameters and track information and will provide updates as warranted by events.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 30, 2009, 6:00:00 AM