Typhoon Morakot

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: August 6, 2009, 9:45:00 AM

A category 3 typhoon is forecast to strike northern Taiwan tomorrow. Typhoon Morakot—currently a category 1 tropical cyclone— is approximately 445 km (276 miles) east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, as of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s 15:00 UTC advisory today. It is moving westward towards the island at 24 km per hour (15 mph), packing maximum sustained winds of 148 km per hour (92 mph) and gusts of 185 km per hour (115 mph). This storm is the eighth named storm of this year’s western Pacific cyclone season, which so far is showing less activity than average. Morakot is forecast to shift to the northwest today and cut a path towards Taiwan’s northern region. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Morakot is forecast to strengthen prior to landfall, reaching a peak intensity of category 3 (winds of at least 178 km per hour). The JMA’s forecasted landfall central pressure and location resemble those of Typhoon Krosa in 2007, which caused widespread wind damage to non-structural elements as well as flooding in Taiwan. Although Morakot is taking a route typically followed by typhoons approaching northern Taiwan, the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan will likely cause a deflection in track and/or cause Morakot to temporarily stall. Following landfall, an approaching low pressure trough from the west is expected to redirect the storm towards the northwest. The storm may then make a second landfall over the weekend on the Chinese mainland—either in Fujian Province or Zhejiang Province. The AIR tropical cyclone team is closely monitoring this event and will provide additional information as warranted. Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Felicia is moving towards Hawaii. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 11:00 EST advisory today, the storm—currently at category 4 strength—is 1545 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, moving northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. Felicia is expected to make landfall on Hawaii’s Big Island on Monday. Felicia is forecast to begin losing strength today,downgrading to tropical storm or tropical depression status by the time it reaches land. Although sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support hurricane intensity, wind shear is quite strong and will likely begin to break up the storm. The likelihood that Felicia will produce damaging winds over land is small. The AIR tropical cyclone team is closely monitoring this event and will provide additional information as warranted. The last major hurricane to strike the Hawaiian Islands was Hurricane Iniki (category 4), which hit Kauai in 1992.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 6, 2009, 9:45:00 AM