Typhoon Parma

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 2, 2009, 12:45:00 PM

While still reeling from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last weekend, the Philippines government has declared a national "state of calamity" and has ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood-prone areas in the path of approaching Typhoon Parma. Parma—currently a Category 4 typhoon—is expected to make landfall in Aurora province in northern Luzon on Saturday. Typhoon Parma is located 426 kilometers (265 miles) east-northeast of Manila, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's (JTWC) Friday, October 2nd 11:00 am advisory. Maximum sustained winds are near 213 kph (132 mph) with higher gusts. The forward speed of the storm has slowed considerably and it is now moving at 13 kph (8 mph). Although Parma is likely to experience some fluctuations in its strength today, it is expected to remain a major typhoon at landfall. Early Thursday, Parma's winds briefly reached 150 mph, or super typhoon status. The typhoon—locally called Pepeng— is not expected to bring as much rain as Tropical Storm Ketsana did. However, the water levels in rivers, lakes, and dams have reached record highs following Ketsana, so any additional rain could cause severe flash flooding and major landslides. Many parts of Manila and neighboring regions also remain under water with mud, debris and trash still blocking drains. Precipitation is already falling at a rate of almost five centimeters (two inches) per hour in the mountainous coastal regions in northeast Philippines and the slower forward speed of the typhoon could result in increased precipitation and flooding risk. Houses in the coastal regions of central Luzon are commonly constructed of masonry or reinforced concrete; nevertheless, poor construction practices and low-quality materials will likely exacerbate building damage. The expected location of landfall—the province of Aurora—is a predominantly rural area of rice plains broken by mountains, with a population of about 187,000 people. Overall take-up rates in the Philippines are estimated at near 15%; however, insurance penetration varies throughout the country. What will happen to Parma after landfall remains highly uncertain. The current Japan Meteorological Agency track shows the storm exiting the Philippines and heading northeast towards Japan. However, the dynamical forecast models are in disagreement, and some project the storm to move toward the northwest and make a second landfall in China. The outcome will depend in part on the strength of a trough that is currently steering Parma northward.The AIR Tropical cyclone team will continue to monitor the progress of Typhoon Parma and will issue updates, as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 2, 2009, 12:45:00 PM