Hurricane Alex

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: June 30, 2010, 7:30:00 AM

Hurricane Alex—the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season—was upgraded from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane yesterday at 11:00 p.m. EDT and continues to slowly grow more organized as it heads towards the coast of Mexico. As of the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 8 A.M. EDT advisory today, Alex was 155 miles east of La Pesca, Mexico, moving west-northwest at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds are currently 80 mph with higher gusts. Alex's interaction with a ridge to the north has shifted the storm's track southward. According to the NHC, Alex's most likely track will now take it somewhere along the coast of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, possibly just north of Soto La Marina, a growing tourist area, but well north of Tampico, the state's economic hub. This stretch of coastline is at low elevation and characterized by barrier islands and lagoons. It is also relatively sparsely populated. The largest city in Alex's path is the state's capital, Ciudad Victoria, with an estimated population of about 315,000. The NHC expects that the center of Alex will approach the coast of northern Mexico and southern Texas later this evening. However, there is considerable uncertainty with respect to its landfall location and Alex may make landfall anywhere from Port O'Connor, Texas, to Tampico, Mexico. Because of very high sea surface temperatures (near 29°C or 84°F) in the Gulf of Mexico and relatively low wind shear, some additional intensification over the next 24 hours is likely. The NHC currently estimates a 22% probability of Alex strengthening to Category 2 status over the next 12 hours. A hurricane warning is in effect for the coast of Texas south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River, and the coast of Mexico from the Rio Grande to La Cruz. According to the National Hurricane Center, Alex's outer wind bands could impact parts of the Rio Grande Valley later this morning. The storm is expected to bring between 6 and 12 inches of rain to southern portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, with isolated pockets receiving up to 20 inches. Rain is currently reported to be falling at the rate of 1.5 inches per hour in parts of central and northeastern Mexico and heavy rain will continue into at least tomorrow. The storm's slow forward motion will exacerbate the effects of the precipitation and increase the risk of flooding across broad portions of the region. These rains could cause flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Stretches of the coast to the north of the landfall location can expect storm surges of 3 to 6 feet above normal tide. Over the weekend, Alex caused flooding and mudslides that resulted in at least 13 deaths in Central America. Flooding remains a significant risk. In advance of the storm's arrival, workers along the South Texas coast have been working to clear drainage ditches, fill sandbags and position heavy equipment and water pumps as well as prepare emergency shelters. President Obama has issued a pre-emptive federal disaster declaration in Texas and Texas Governor, Rick Perry, has declared 19 counties disaster areas. In Mexico, officials in Matamoros have begun evacuating more than 2,500 residents from coastal areas. Offshore, the hurricane has halted about 25% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and 9% of natural-gas output. According to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, three rigs and 28 platforms have been evacuated. While the storm is forecast to miss major oil production facilities, waves as high as 12 feet are hampering efforts to control damage left by the BP oil spill, which began April 20th. The storm has forced a temporary suspension of BP's skimming operations until the seas and wind subside. The AIR tropical cyclone team is monitoring the progress of Alex and will make additional information available as warranted by events.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: June 30, 2010, 7:30:00 AM