Hurricane Earl

Pre-Landfall 6 | Summary
Posting Date: September 3, 2010, 3:05:00 PM

Hurricane Earl continued to slowly weaken overnight in an environment of increased wind shear and cooler waters. As of the National Hurricane Center's 8 AM EDT advisory, the storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. As expected, Earl is beginning to make a turn to the northeast as it becomes embedded in a mid-latitude northwesterly flow. The storm made its closest pass to the Outer Banks of North Carolina early this morning at a distance of approximately 85 miles, keeping hurricane force winds offshore. There are some early reports of flooding on the Outer Banks; one to two feet of water covered roads in Buxton on Cape Hatteras, along with debris that had not been secured. Portions of the NC-12, the islands' only thoroughfare, have been closed. Tropical storm force winds and higher gusts have ripped the siding off of some homes and knocked down electricity poles, and there have been 1300 reports of power outages. Further south, in Atlantic Beach, high waves damaged a pier. Otherwise, Earl's winds did little structural damage to properties on North Carolina's barrier islands, where buildings are subject to strict design requirements. AIR expects some damage to non-structural elements, such as signage and awnings. The potential also exists for wind-borne debris to have broken windows, possibly leading to contents damage. Earl's passage was coincident with high tide and a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level was expected within the hurricane warning area. In addition, heavy rain is likely to continue to fall, bringing total accumulations in eastern North Carolina to 3 to 5 inches. However, because Earl is a fast moving storm, flooding is expected to be confined to isolated areas with poor drainage. A simulation of Hurricane Earl using the AIR U.S. Hurricane Model indicates that insured losses in North Carolina and Virginia will not be significant. Aircraft and satellite data indicated that Earl has undergone an eyewall replacement, and its new larger eye, measuring approximately 58 miles, has become poorly defined. While the storm's intensity has decreased, its windfield is still quite large, with tropical storm force winds extending up to 205 miles outward from the center. Hurricane Earl is currently located approximately 135 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and 395 miles south-southwest of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. It is moving to the north-northeast at 18 mph and a turn to the northeast is expected during the next 12-24 hours, at which time the storm will accelerate. On its current projected path, Earl is not expected to bring hurricane force winds to the mid-Atlantic states, but a tropical storm warning is in effect for most of the eastern seaboard from Virginia to Massachusetts. On its closest brush to U.S. shores, the hurricane is forecast to pass within 40 miles of Nantucket late Friday or early Saturday at Category 1 strength. However, a slight shift in track could mean a landfall in Cape Cod and hurricane warnings are in effect for most coastal counties of Massachusetts. The NHC has given southeastern Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket about a 20%-40% probability of experiencing hurricane force winds. While no mandatory evacuations are yet in place, the governor of Massachusetts has declared a state of emergency and residents have been warned to remain on high alert. Later on Saturday morning, Earl is expected to make landfall near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, at weak Category 1 or tropical storm strength. A hurricane watch is in effect for parts of Nova Scotia. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Fiona, with maximum sustained winds of near 50 mph, is moving north at approximately 13 mph. As of the NHC’s 8:00 EDT advisory, the storm is located about 285 miles south-southwest of Bermuda and is expected to pass near Bermuda tonight or early tomorrow morning. A tropical storm warning and a small craft warning are in effect for the island. The AIR tropical cyclone team is monitoring both storms closely and will provide additional information as warranted by events.

Pre-Landfall 6 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 3, 2010, 3:05:00 PM