Hurricane Igor

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: September 14, 2010, 7:00:00 AM

Hurricane Igor—the ninth named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season—rapidly reached Category 4 strength over the weekend. Today, the powerful hurricane is moving slowly across the Atlantic on a path that could threaten Bermuda on Sunday. As of the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 11 AM AST advisory today, Igor was located about 710 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 7mph. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 135 miles per hour, making it a weak Category 4 storm; hurricane force winds extend outward some 50 miles from the center. Though no coastal hurricane watches or warnings are currently in effect, the Leeward Islands may begin to be impacted by swells from Igor today. These swells could affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and tomorrow, leading to dangerous rip currents. The cruise line Royal Caribbean International has altered the itinerary of its 5,400-passenger ship, the Oasis of the Seas, to avoid adverse weather from Igor. In Haiti, the government initiated plans to relocate thousands of homeless people in advance of Igor’s potential effects. The storm’s west-northwest motion is forecast to continue today, though tomorrow it is expected to turn to the northwest. Because sea-surface temperatures in the vicinity of the storm are high and wind shear is currently low, Igor is likely to remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) through Friday. The NHC’s five-day forecast shows Igor reaching Bermuda early Sunday, though it is expected to weaken somewhat before it reaches the island. On its projected path, Igor should stay well east of both the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. coastline, but it should be noted that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding Igor’s path. So far this season, three hurricanes—Danielle, Earl and now Igor—have reached Category 4 strength. Meanwhile, farther west in the Atlantic, Julia became the fifth hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. It is currently located about 355 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. As of the NHC’s 11 AM AST advisory, the Category 1 storm has maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour. In the next day or so, an increase in forward speed and some additional strengthening is expected for Julia, but as the storm nears Igor—a far more powerful system—Igor’s strong upper-level winds could disrupt the weaker storm’s circulation. It is too early to predict Julia's threat to land, but the NHC's five-day forecast shows it tracking well east of Bermuda. After a relatively slow start, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is beginning to meet the expectations of forecasters who had predicted tropical cyclone activity well above average. According to AIR's ClimateCast® for the Atlantic basin, which is available from the ALERT website, the season is above average by virtually every measure. Thus far, there have been 10 named storms, compared to an expected long-term average of 6.6 by this date in the season. Five have reached hurricane status and 3 have reached major hurricane status, which compares to corresponding numbers of 3.7 and 1.9, respectively, by mid-September. Seasonal accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, another frequently-used measure of seasonal activity, currently stands at 80—significantly higher than the long-term average of around 52 by this date. What the season has not yet produced is a U.S. landfall or significant insured losses. The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor the progress of both Igor and Julia closely and will provide additional updates as warranted by events.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 14, 2010, 7:00:00 AM