Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: September 19, 2010, 4:00:00 PM
Hurricane Igor slowly weakened over the weekend and is now expected to make its closest pass to Bermuda as a weak Category 1 hurricane. This morning, aircraft reconnaissance flights were unable to identify an eyewall, and the introduction of dry air into the storm's circulation also took its toll.
Nevertheless, Igor remains an extremely large system. Sustained tropical storm force winds were reported at the airport in Bermuda as early as 11:00 am on Sunday when the center was still 135 miles south-southwest of the island. Large swells have been pounding beaches since Saturday, and on Sunday morning, the low-lying Causeway connecting the main island with Bermuda’s airport was closed.
As of the 8:00 pm National Hurricane Center advisory, Hurricane Igor has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, just 1 mph higher than hurricane threshold. The center is located about 60 miles west southwest of Bermuda and is moving to the north-northeast at 14 mph. The storm should be nearest to Bermuda within the next hour or two. As of the latest report, sustained wind speeds at Bermuda’s airport are 52 mph, gusting to 68 mph. It should be noted, however, that the estimated central pressure is 953 mb, which would be on par with a Category 3 hurricane under the old Saffir Simpson Scale (see the AIR Current
"Ahead of the Wave: The Change Coming to the Saffir-Simpson Classification System" ).
Homes were shuttered and shop windows boarded up across the island in preparation for the storm's arrival, and emergency shelters have been set up. Cruise lines altered their weekend schedules, heading instead for the Bahamas. Belco, Bermuda's supplier of electricity, recalled its crews as Igor neared the islands. By 4:00 pm on Sunday, the utility company reported that 16,000 households were without power and unlikely to be restored until Monday. Schools will remain closed on Monday.
Comparisons between Igor and 2003’s Hurricane Fabian were rampant during the last several days. Ultimately, however, the two storms’ impacts will be very different. Hurricane Fabian was a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Still, Igor’s size is comparable and its tropical storm force winds extend considerably further—345 miles compared to Fabian’s 230 miles—which means that Bermuda will have experienced high winds for a considerably longer duration than in 2003. Nevertheless, wind damage from Igor should be limited.
Bermuda’s building code is extremely strict; homes, which are typically built of limestone or concrete blocks, and commercial buildings, which are typically reinforced concrete, are required to be built to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph. Igor’s Category 1 hurricane winds are not expected to cause structural damage. Some damage, however, can be expected to the limestone tile roofs that dominate the island, particularly in light of how long they will have been battered by high winds.
Igor is expected to be accompanied by significant storm surge, which is likely to erode beaches along the Bermuda's south coast. Most homes are set atop cliffs, away from the immediate shoreline; some resort facilities, however, are not. Heavy rainfall—up to 9 inches of total accumulation—could cause street flooding. In 2003, storm surge from Hurricane Fabian washed away part of the Causeway to the airport.
Once past Bermuda, Igor is expected to increase in forward speed and make a turn to the northeast, passing east of Canada’s Newfoundland.
The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to gather the available meteorological information about Hurricane Igor and has begun running simulations of the storm’s impact on Bermuda. ALERT subscribers will be notified when results are available.
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