Hurricane Karl

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: September 15, 2010, 2:00:00 PM

Tropical Storm Karl made landfall with winds of 65 miles per hour on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula this morning at about 8:45 am EDT (12:45 UTC) about 30 miles east-northeast of Chetumal, the capital of the state of Quintana Roo. Declared a tropical storm only the previous evening, Karl was strengthening and, according to radar data, developing an eye as it came onshore near the small tourist and fishing town of Xcalak. By 11:00 am EDT this morning, Karl had advanced to about ten miles northeast of Chetumal and was about 175 miles east-southeast of the town Campeche on the northern coast of Yucatan, toward which it was moving at about 14 mph. According to the 11:00 am National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Karl’s maximum sustained wind speed had diminished by then to about 60 mph. Fortunately, the storm remains relatively small; its tropical storm force winds extend only about 45 miles from the center. However, Karl has brought coastal flooding and threatens to drop total rain accumulations of three to five inches on some parts of Mexico, Belize, and northern Guatemala. Accumulations of up to eight inches are possible in isolated locations. The rain is likely to exacerbate flooding that has already affected nearly one million people in the states of Veracruz and Oaxaca. According to local civil protection authorities, hundreds of people from the sparsely-populated southern coast of Yucatan where Karl made landfall, most from small Mayan towns and villages like Xcalak, are being evacuated. Because the region of landfall is relatively sparsely populated, AIR does not expect significant insured losses from Karl’s first landfall in Mexico. The storm is expected to cross the Yucatan peninsula today and emerge into the Bay of Campeche Thursday morning much weakened, with winds of approximately 40 mph. However, according to the NHC, conditions in Campeche Bay are currently ideal for Karl to reintensify: vertical wind shear is low, sea surface temperatures are about 84-86° Fahrenheit, and the atmosphere is very moist. Karl is expected to develop into a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as it passes over the Bay of Campeche, possibly threatening the oil rigs and platforms of the Mexican oil company Pemex as it does so. Karl is expected to make a second landfall Saturday morning somewhere between the cities of Tuxpan and Tampico along Mexico’s east coast. Most insured residential structures in this area are made of confined masonry, which performs better than plain masonry under lateral wind loads because of its use of bond beams and columns. However, a large percentage of houses built every year in Mexico are constructed without a building permit, perhaps as large as 50%. Tropical Storm Karl is the 11th named storm of this now very active hurricane season. Indeed, records are already being set. Hurricane Julia in the Atlantic Ocean developed into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds overnight, thereby becoming the strongest hurricane on record so far east in the Atlantic. Also, with Hurricane Igor a Category 4 hurricane as well, it is only the second time in recorded history that two Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic simultaneously. The only other time was on September 16, 1926, when both the “Great Miami Hurricane” and “Hurricane Four” were Category 4 hurricanes for a six-hour period. Finally, there have been four category 4 hurricanes (Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia) within a 20-day period—between 27 Aug and 15 Sept—the most on record in such a short period. Hurricane Julia, as of the NHC’s 11:00 am Advisory, is about 600 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Julia is headed northwest, toward the open sea, and current projections indicate it should not threaten any land areas. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in its projected path will be cooler today (about 80 F), and Julia’s further intensification is unlikely. Hurricane Igor also intensified last night to a very strong Category 4 hurricane at the borderline of being a Category 5, but weakened somewhat this morning. As of the NHC’s 11:00 am advisory, Igor’s maximum sustained winds were about 135 mph; it was about 540 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands—or about 1050 miles southeast of Bermuda. Igor continues to curve northward—at a forward speed of eight miles per hour—almost directly toward Bermuda. It is still expected to pass close to the island on Sunday, although how close remains highly uncertain. Regardless of its eventual track, Igor has a large wind field and is expected to bring adverse conditions to Bermuda. The AIR tropical cyclone team is continuing to monitor the progress of all three storms closely and will provide additional updates as events warrant.

Landfall | Downloads
Posting Date: September 15, 2010, 2:00:00 PM