Hurricane Paula

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: October 12, 2010, 12:45:00 PM

Paula, the 9th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season and the 16th named storm, is 140 miles south-southeast of the popular tourist resort of Cozumel, Mexico. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 12:45 PM CDT advisory today, the storm, currently packing 100 mph winds, is tracking north-northwest at 10 mph. Tonight and Wednesday, Paula is expected to move towards the Yucatan, coming very close to the peninsula’s east coast before turning north and east, towards western Cuba. Presently, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Mexican coast from Punta Gruesa north to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel. A tropical storm warning is effect from Chetumal north to regions south of Punta Gruesa and for the coast from Cabo Catoche to San Felipe. Tropical storm force winds could begin impacting the hurricane warning area as early as tonight. Along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, storm surge from Paula could produce flooding. Rain is also a threat; Paula is also expected to deliver between three and six inches of rain in parts of the eastern Yucatan. Areas of western and central Cuba could receive similar amounts, with isolated pockets receiving up to ten inches. At Category 2 wind speeds, there should be little or no damage, apart from nonstructural damage such as window damage, to engineered structures in this region—i.e., modern hotels in the popular tourist resorts of Cozumel and Cancun—but there could be minor to moderate damage to poor quality homes and moderate damage to signage and light metal structures. Most insured residential structures on Mexico’s east coast are made of confined masonry, which performs better than plain masonry under lateral wind loads because of its use of bond beams and columns. However, a large percentage of houses built every year in Mexico are constructed without a building permit, perhaps as high as 50%. The extent of any damage will largely depend on Paula’s future track and intensity, about which there remains considerable uncertainty. Most of the forecast models have Paula passing just off the northern tip of Cozumel. Thereafter, the models diverge, with some forecasting a landfall in or near Cancun. The NHC’s most likely track, however, has Paula bypassing to the east of Cancun and recurving towards western Cuba. Presently, Paula—a small storm, with hurricane-force winds extending outward just 10 miles—remains over warm ocean waters in the northwest Caribbean and is experiencing low-to-moderate wind shear conditions. While in this favorable environment, the storm should continue to slowly strengthen, possibly nearing Category 3 strength by tomorrow, when it is forecast to pass nearest to Cozumel. While the storm is off the Yucatan Peninsula, an increase in upper level winds is expected to produce more unfavorable shear conditions, limiting any additional strengthening and ultimately causing the storm to weaken. Simultaneously, the shift in the upper level winds could produce a change in the steering currents. The timing of this shift relative to Paula’s intensification will determine how the storm progresses after it passes by the Yucatan. Ambiguity in the expected rate of storm intensification in the short term, coupled with uncertainty in the steering currents in the long term, mean there is considerable uncertainty associated with Paula’s forecast track and intensify overall. Paula developed yesterday off of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, and quickly intensified from a tropical storm to a hurricane— setting a record for the fastest intensification from the time of the first advisory to arrival at hurricane strength; that time was 12 hours, from 5pm EDT yesterday to 5am EDT today. The storm caused some damage to homes and forced schools to close in Honduras. The AIR tropical cyclone team is continuing to monitor the progress of this event closely and will provide additional updates as events warrant.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 12, 2010, 12:45:00 PM