Hurricane Tomas

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: November 1, 2010, 9:30:00 AM

Tropical Storm Tomas, the 19th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed on October 29 approximately 300 miles east-southeast of the island of Grenada. Amid favorable conditions of low shear and high moisture, Tomas strengthened rapidly on its approach toward the Lesser Antilles, passing just south of Barbados in the early morning hours of October 30. In Barbados, the storm tore off roofs and caused severe disruptions to electricity and water distribution and communication networks. From there, Tomas continued to strengthen, achieving Category 1 hurricane status later that morning just before passing between St. Vincent and St. Lucia. With recorded gusts of over 90 mph, Tomas battered the islands for several hours with high winds and heavy rain, causing considerable damage to vulnerable buildings, agriculture, and infrastructure. Officials in St. Vincent estimate that 300 homes have been seriously damaged. St. Lucia was especially hard hit by Tomas' strengthening northern eyewall, and there are widespread reports of downed trees and roofs blown off of homes, businesses, schools, and hospitals. Landslides and flooding have severely damaged roads and bridges, cutting off access to some parts of the island. The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), a disaster fund, estimates a $12.8 million payout for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Residential structures on these islands are dominated by masonry construction, while concrete, light metal and steel are commonly used for commercial and industrial structures. At Tomas' wind speeds, minimal structural damage is expected to well constructed homes. Poorly constructed homes and light metal commercial structures can suffer damage to roof and wall claddings. The storm intensified to Category 2 strength after exiting the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean Sea on the morning of October 31, but quickly weakened in an environment of increased wind shear. As of the National Hurricane Center's 11:00 AM EDT advisory today, Tomas is located approximately 500 miles west of St. Vincent, 100 miles north of Curacao, and 420 miles southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It is moving west-southwest near 14 mph, but is expected to slow considerably in the next day. Currently packing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, some further weakening today is possible, but the storm is expected to begin to restrengthen late tomorrow, eventually reaching Category 1 status on Friday morning. There is still considerable uncertainty with regards to Tomas' future track. A westerly trough of low pressure is expected to pull the storm to the north or northeast later this week, but computer models diverge on the timing and location of this turn. The NHC's current best track has Tomas making landfall in Haiti on Friday as a Category 1 storm, although the cone of uncertainty (representing 60-70% confidence) includes most of Jamaica and all of the Dominican Republic. Grappling with a cholera outbreak, and with hundreds of thousands of people still homeless from the January 12th earthquake, Haiti is particularly ill equipped to handle the arrival of Tomas. Tomas' formation this far south and this late in the year is unprecedented. The strongest storm in recent memory to affect the Lesser Antilles was Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. Ivan devastated Grenada with Category 3 winds and caused close to 1 billion USD in damage to the small nation (according to the Caribbean Development Bank) before going on to strike the United States. The AIR tropical cyclone team will continue to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Tomas and will provide updates as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: November 1, 2010, 9:30:00 AM