Hurricane Tomas

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: November 5, 2010, 1:15:00 PM

With wind speeds increasing overnight to 80 miles per hour, Hurricane Tomas re-intensified to Category 1 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as it approached the narrow Windward Passage between Cuba and Haiti. Having veered slightly to the west, Tomas just missed making landfall on Haiti’s southern and westernmost peninsula this morning. However, the storm still brought heavy rains—perhaps as much as three inches during the night—to areas around Port-au-Prince where roughly 1.3 million people, left homeless by Haiti’s earthquake in January, live in fragile camps of tents, tarps, and ramshackle huts. Unfortunately, heavy rain is likely to continue for several more hours. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 2:00 pm EDT Advisory, Hurricane Tomas was passing through the Windward Passage to the north/northeast at about 12 mph, about 140 miles northwest of Port-au-Prince. Forward speed is expected to increase slightly in the next 24 hours, as are wind speeds, which had risen to 85 mph since earlier this morning. Tomas’s hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from its center, while its tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. During the night Tomas passed to the east of Jamaica, putting the island on the left-hand, and therefore weaker, side of the storm. Schools on the island were closed yesterday and remain closed today. However, although the parish of Portland on the island’s northeast coast reported nearly three inches of rainfall, no significant flooding or wind damage has been reported. Concern remains, however, for the impact Hurricane Tomas will have on the 1.3 million people in Haiti left homeless by January’s earthquake. Steady rain in Port-au-Prince has turned the city’s streets into canals that are now rivers of garbage. The Haitian Government has been urging people to evacuate their encampments. Most, however, are refusing the offers. Health officials are concerned that the deluge of water will only exacerbate the current cholera epidemic. Westernmost Haiti, closest to the storm’s center, is sparsely populated, and AIR expects little wind damage from Tomas’ passage. However, officials are concerned about the city of Gonaives in northwestern Haiti (105,000 population as of the 2003 census), which is very vulnerable to flooding and mudslides. In 2004, Tropical Storm Jeanne killed 3,000 people there. Once Tomas passes through the Windward Passage, it could continue to strengthen to Category 2 status in an environment of relatively low shear, moist air and warm sea-surface temperatures. Tonight or early Saturday, Tomas will pass near or over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, which already have issued hurricane warnings. However, once Tomas passes these islands, it will enter an area with very high wind shear and is expected to begin weakening again. The southeastern Bahamas which Tomas should pass by or over tomorrow are sparsely populated. Significant insured losses on these islands are not expected. The Turks and Caicos Islands lie almost directly in Tomas’s expected path. The airport for the islands closed today, as Tomas’s storm clouds began to gather. Residential construction on the islands is largely masonry, while commercial properties are a mix of reinforced concrete and masonry. High rise structures are few, with most tall buildings reaching only five stories (except for large and more engineered recent hotels). The last hurricanes that impacted the islands with significant damage were Donna in 1969, Kate in 1985, and Ike in 2008. Given the uncertainty concerning Tomas’s strength at the time and how close it will actually come to the islands, it is difficult to suggest possible damage at this time. The AIR tropical cyclone team will continue to closely monitor Hurricane Tomas’s advance through the Caribbean and will provide updates as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: November 5, 2010, 1:15:00 PM