Tropical Storm Bonnie

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: July 23, 2010, 11:40:00 AM

The second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Bonnie, is crossing the southern Florida peninsula and is expected to exit into the Gulf of Mexico later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Concerns are being widely voiced regarding the storm’s effect on cleanup efforts at the site of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, as well as the possibility that more oil will be washed ashore into wetlands and communities along the northern Gulf coast. The tropical depression that is now Bonnie formed Thursday morning in the Bahamas and was upgraded to tropical storm status by Thursday night. As of today’s 11:00 AM EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Bonnie was located in the southern Biscayne Bay of Florida and was approaching landfall about 30 miles south-southwest of Miami. With maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 mph, the storm is moving west-northwest at 18 mph and is expected to continue to track in this direction. Because of unfavorable upper-level wind shear, forecasters at the NHC do not expect Tropical Storm Bonnie to develop into a hurricane, although slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. The storm exited the Caribbean Islands after causing some flooding in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, but no major damage has been reported. With tropical storm force winds extending 85 miles from the center of the storm, a tropical storm warning is currently in effect in the northwestern Bahamas, along the southern Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys. While the storm is expected to bring heavy rains and thunderstorms to the area, no mandatory evacuations have been ordered as forecasters do not expect significant storm surge. Forecast winds of up to 50 mph are not likely to cause significant damage to structures. Officials from several cruise lines have reported that they have changed the itineraries of their ships around Florida and the Bahamas. Bonnie is expected to pass over the southern Florida peninsula today and into the Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday morning. With an expected track that takes Bonnie directly over the Deepwater Horizon blowout site, the decision was made yesterday evening to evacuate nearly 2000 workers at the site of the spill, as well as dozens of response vessels, including oil skimming ships and relief well drilling operations. According to a statement by the national incident commander, Thad Allen, and BP Senior Vice President, Kent Wells, the containment cap placed on the well last week, a mile under water, is expected to be sufficiently secure to withstand waves generated by Bonnie. The evacuation is expected to delay cleanup efforts by several days. Other companies have also begun evacuating personnel from oil and gas drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the storm, although no significant damage is expected to rigs and platforms at the expected wind speeds and offshore wave heights of 3 to 4 meters. Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, which totals 1.6 million barrels per day, may be disrupted to some extent. One worrisome possibility is that the storm will worsen the environmental toll of the oil spill, as winds and waves may push oil into the fragile marshlands along the northern Gulf coast. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency as the storm is forecast to hit Louisiana Sunday morning. Last month, the waves of Tropical Storm Alex carried oil into formerly unaffected coastal areas, even though it was farther from both the oil spill and the Louisiana coast than Bonnie is expected to track. There is still considerable uncertainty as to where along the coast Bonnie will land, but a tropical storm warning is in effect along the northern Gulf coast from Destin, Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana. The highest surf is expected in areas on the right hand side of the track, from the Florida Panhandle to the Mississippi/Louisiana border. The AIR tropical cyclone team will continue to monitor this storm and will make additional information available if warranted by events.

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Posting Date: July 23, 2010, 11:40:00 AM