Status: Closed
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Post Landfall 3 |
10/25/2010 12:30:00 PM |
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Post Landfall 2 |
10/22/2010 1:30:00 PM |
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Landfall |
10/18/2010 1:45:00 PM |
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Post Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 22, 2010, 1:30:00 PM
Torrential rains from passing Typhoon Megi have left three people dead and more than 20 people missing in Taiwan. The rains triggered flooding and landslides on the island. In the Philippines, where Megi made landfall earlier this week, the deaths of 36 people are attributed to similar conditions brought by Megi.
Typhoon Megi is continuing to move at a little more than five miles per hour toward mainland China, where it is expected to make landfall late tonight or Saturday morning. According to the 12:00 UTC Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Advisory, Megi was a strong Category 1 storm, with maximum sustained wind speeds of about 92 mph and gusts of over 130 mph. However, with the distance of its hurricane-force winds from its center being nearly 50 miles, Megi is quite large, and will be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength.
At the time of the JMA advisory, Megi was about 100 miles south of Shantou City in Guangdong Province. It is forecast to make landfall somewhere between Huilai, in Guangdong, and Xiamen in Fujian Province. More than seven million people live in the area. Historically, adobe and brick with wood-frame have been the predominant construction types for single family homes in China, and they are still widespread in rural areas such as much of Guangdong and Fujian. These are usually poorly engineered structures and generally not insured. Insured single-family homes are predominately confined masonry and reinforced concrete. Concrete is less vulnerable to flood loads, and also to lateral wind loads.
Megi is expected to unleash rains of five inches to as much as 15 inches in some places. In Fujian Province alone nearly 160,000 people have been evacuated and over 50,000 fishing boats have been recalled to port. Primary and middle schools in cities along the coast were suspended on Friday and for the weekend. Nearly 50 air flights are known to have been cancelled so far.
Typhoon Megi has already begun to weaken under the influence of moderate vertical wind shear and other influences. Once Megi makes landfall it is expected to quickly dissipate over land within the next 12 to 18 hours.
Given the expected landfall location and the low take-up rates in the area, insured losses are not, at this time, expected to be significant. However, there remains considerable uncertainty with respect to Megi’s forecast intensity and AIR’s tropical cyclone team is closely monitoring events. Additional information will be made available as warranted by events.
After undergoing an explosive intensification in the Bay of Bengal overnight, Typhoon Giri made landfall along the Myanmar coast near the town of Kyaukphyu in Rakhine State about 3:00 pm local time (9:30 UTC) as a Category 4 typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Giri’s winds are stronger than those of Typhoon Nargis, which struck Myanmar in May of 2008 and left more than 130,000 people dead or missing. Giri is the fourth storm of the season to form in the Bay of Bengal and one of the strongest ever to hit Myanmar.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said that after increasing by as much as 60 mph in 12 twelve hours, Giri’s maximum sustained winds had reached 155 mph in the hours before landfall, making it a “super typhoon” in the Pacific classification system. It should be noted that according to the official Myanmar meteorology agency, Giri’s winds at landfall were 110 mph at its center, with gusts of up to 120 mph. This is significantly weaker than the intensity reported by the JTWC.
Sea levels along Myanmar’s coast are expected to rise by nearly 12 feet, and with heavy rain falling, extensive flooding and landslides are also anticipated. Authorities in Rakhine State have prepared disaster relief camps in the region and people in the coastal areas were urged earlier to move to safer places. Early reports say trees have been toppled along the coast and power in some areas has been cut, making communications with the hardest-hit region difficult. The area is mostly rural and not heavily populated, and as the land rises quickly to the mountains, damage can be expected to be largely limited to traditional, poorly constructed buildings.
Fortunately, Giri is relatively small, its radius of storm-force winds extending only 30 miles out from its center. It is expected to move inland toward the Arakan Range of mountains—which rise to 10,000 feet—and break up quickly, limiting the area its most destructive winds can affect. The flooding rains, however, probably will continue through Saturday.
Giri’s wider effect has also been felt in Bangladesh, whose closest border is only 100 miles north of Giri’s landfall. Nearly 100 villages in several rural areas—Teknaf, Kutubdia, Patuakhali, and Chakaria—were reported to have been inundated by a tidal surge yesterday. More than 100 fishermen are also missing since yesterday, and more than 40,000 people of Bangladeshi coastal areas have been moved to safer locations.
On Thursday, October 21, Tropical Storm Richard became the 17th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. As of today's 2:00 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Richard has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts. Forward speed is just 3 mph. However, the storm is expected to both speed up and intensify over the next two days.
The most likely forecast track takes Richard north but offshore of Honduras over the course of tomorrow. By Sunday, low vertical wind shear should allow the storm to intensify to hurricane status as it heads toward Belize. Richard should dissipate fairly quickly after landfall, however, which is currently expected sometime on Monday morning.
Tropical Storm Richard is expected to bring as much as three to five inches of rainfall to northern Honduras. Flash floods and mudslides are possible. Wind damage, however, is expected to be minimal.
As always, there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the future track and intensity of this storm. The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor the situation and will make additional information available as warranted by events.
Post Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 22, 2010, 1:30:00 PM