Tropical Storm Arlene

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: June 30, 2011, 9:30:00 AM

Tropical Storm Arlene, the first named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall today at 5:00 am ET near Cabo Rojo, about 35 miles north of Tuxpan, Mexico, in the state of Veracruz. Wind speeds at landfall were 65 mph (strong tropical storm strength), up from 50 mph wind speeds yesterday. Moderate wind shear earlier this week hindered Arlene from strengthening beyond tropical storm-strength status. According to a statement from Mexico’s Interior Ministry, about 200,000 people spread across six Mexican states (Veracruz, Tamaulipas, Hidalgo, Puebla, Queretaro and San Luis Potosi) are vulnerable to Arlene’s winds and heavy precipitation. To access disaster funding, the governor of Veracruz has asked the central government to declare a state of emergency. According to the 11:00 am (EDT) National Hurricane Center (NHC) Public Advisory today, Tropical Storm Arlene is about 45 miles north-northwest of the city of Tuxpan, moving west at 7 mph; maximum sustained winds are still 65 mph, as they were at landfall, though Arlene is expected to weaken as it maintains its westward trajectory inland today, dissipating sometime tomorrow over the mountains of central Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in place from Barra de Nautla southward to Veracruz, and another remains in place from La Pesca southward to Palma Sola. At present, convective bands from Arlene are interacting with the Sierra Madre Oriental, a mountain range in northeastern Mexico; this is enhancing the rainfall on the eastern slopes of the range. Rainfall rates in excess of one to two inches per hour will be possible during the day today, tapering off as the remnants of the storm dissipate tonight. Some areas in this region will experience significant rainfall accumulation during this time—in excess of twelve inches—leading to localized flooding and the potential for isolated landslides. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall will be in areas of elevated terrain north of Arlene’s storm track, including Tampico, which is currently 45 miles north-northwest of the storm’s center. Despite the potential damage to property caused by flooding, farmers will welcome the rainfall, as Mexico is in the midst of a severe drought. Drought stricken south Texas is also expected to experience rainfall from Arlene. In Mexico, insured residential properties are largely of confined masonry construction, while insured commercial properties are overwhelmingly of confined masonry and reinforced masonry. Against Arlene’s wind speeds, both construction types should fare well; structural damage from wind should be minimal. Indeed minimal damage has so far been reported, although poorly constructed homes and other structures may experience minor damage to roof and wall claddings. Meanwhile, the flooding that results from Arlene’s precipitation may cause minimal damage to masonry structures—which are pervious to water and also characterized by weak connections between building elements. Given the combination of Arlene’s tropical storm force wind speeds, the fact that it made landfall along a relatively sparsely populated stretch of the coast, and low insurance take-up rates in the region, AIR does not expect significant insured losses from this event.

Landfall | Downloads
Posting Date: June 30, 2011, 9:30:00 AM