Tropical Storm Emily

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: August 5, 2011, 12:30:00 PM

Emily remained stalled and disorganized in the Caribbean yesterday morning before finally reaching Haiti’s southwestern coast just before 5 pm EDT yesterday afternoon. As a result of interaction with Haiti’s mountainous terrain, the storm—at tropical storm-strength earlier in the day—rapidly degenerated. As of 5pm EDT last night, Emily had dissipated completely. It is now a remnant low pressure system, lacking a closed surface circulation. Even though the system’s winds are not a threat, rain and flooding are. Precipitation from Emily could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in Hispaniola today. Already, the capital, Port-au-Prince—large parts of which remain in disrepair after last year’s earthquake—has experienced significant rainfall. Heavier precipitation fell further north, damaging homes as well as a cholera treatment center, according to the country's civil defense director. Outside the capital city, buildings are of poor construction and are subject to damage by flooding and mudslides. Hundreds of homes in Haiti have been damaged so far. More than 1,000 people were evacuated in the far western town of Jeremie. In the rice-farming village of L'Estere in Haiti's Artibonite Valley, at least 50 homes were threatened by flooding. The Artibonite is especially flood-prone because the surrounding mountains have been deforested. In the Dominican Republic, Emily delivered more than 140 millimeters of rain around the southwestern city of Barahona. On Thursday night, more than 26 provinces in the Dominican Republic were on “red alert.” Rising floodwaters have forced more than 5,000 people to flee their homes and caused several rivers to overflow their banks. The high water has collapsed bridges, cutting off a string of towns in the southwest of the country. Crop damage has been reported, as has light damage to structures and some damage to electrical plants in the eastern part of the country. Provinces in the Dominican Republic impacted by flood damage include San Pedro de Macorís, Monseñor Noel, Barahona, Azua, La Romana, Samana, Santo Domingo, Bahoruco and Monte Plata, though the majority of the damage in these areas is to uninsured structures. Thus, insured losses from flood will not be significant. Wind damage will also be minor, in light of Emily’s dissipation. The residential building stock in Haiti primarily consists of unreinforced masonry structures; commercial buildings are typically made of reinforced masonry construction, and typically performs well in both wind and flood scenarios. Yesterday, as Emily tracked toward Hispaniola, there was significant uncertainty not only as to the storm’s track but also as to its future intensity. Some global models predicted the storm would weaken. Because the storm was so disorganized and did not extend far into the atmosphere vertically, it was not influenced by steering currents in the same way a more organized storm would have been. Instead of being driven northward by upper level steering currents, it was driven further westward by lower level winds. Earlier this week, Tropical Storm Emily’s heavy downpours and strong winds caused severe flooding and landslides in parts of Fort-de-France, the capital city of Martinique. At least one person was killed in the neighborhood of Volga. As of Wednesday morning, August 3, some 5,000 houses remained affected by power outages, and several roads were still cut off. Heavy rainfall from Emily passing through the Caribbean also impacted Puerto Rico, particularly in the west (largely sparing the capital, San Juan). There were no reports of major damage or injuries, but several roads were closed by flooding and downed trees, and the storm cut power to tens of thousands of people. Emily's current fate is very uncertain. It is possible that the remnant low pressure system will regenerate into a tropical storm (there is a 60% chance of this as of the 2pm National Hurricane Center update this morning) after passing Cuba and entering the Southern Bahamas, where the environment will be more conducive to development. Given that the storm’s winds have dissipated, that flooding is mostly impacting non-insured properties, and that the insurance penetration in Haiti is extremely low, insured losses are not expected to be significant. AIR's tropical cyclone team is continuing to monitor Emily and will provide additional information as events warrant.

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Posting Date: August 5, 2011, 12:30:00 PM