Yasi Cyclone

Post Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: February 3, 2011, 1:00:00 PM

AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses to onshore residential and commercial properties and contents from the Category 5 (Australia Bureau of Meteorology intensity scale) cyclone Yasi that struck Australia at midnight local time, Wednesday, February 2, will be between AUD 350 million (USD 354 million) and AUD 1.5 billion (USD 1.5 billion). In the aftermath of the most powerful cyclone to strike Australia’s east coast since 1918, many residents are expressing relief; while the storm was indeed damaging, its impact on heavily populated areas along the country’s northeast coast was less than expected. A picture is slowly beginning to emerge of the scale of destruction wreaked by the severe cyclone. Throughout Queensland and affected areas, newer commercial buildings sustained only minor structural damage, illustrating the effectiveness of Australia’s building code even in the face of such a major storm. Non-engineered residential structures performed less well, with some sustaining major structural damage, mostly to roofs. The towns of Tully and Cardwell were particularly hard hit, with many buildings sustaining significant structural damage, particularly caravans which are quite vulnerable to high wind-speeds. Meanwhile, flooding is a major concern in Townsville, Ingham and Giru. Cairns, with a population of over 160,000, was spared major damage, though more than 65 per cent of homes there are without power. The storm also cut off communications, leaving 25 mobile phone towers out of commission and over 10,000 landlines disconnected. Ergon Energy is working to restore power to some 180,700 customers still without it in north Queensland. As Yasi made landfall on Wednesday, the storm’s strongest sustained winds, according to BOM stations, were on the order of 136.7 - 144.8 km per hour with gusts as high as 185 km per hour observed in and around the Cardwell to Lucinda Point region. This region corresponds to Yasi’s southern eyewall—where the strongest winds occur. Gusts exceeding 119 km per hour extended as far south as Townsville—some 175 km south-southeast of the landfall location—and as far inland as 200 km, to near Hughenden (where wind gusts as high as 112 km per hour were recorded). Precipitation was generally less than 150 mm along the coastal areas, with as much as 369 mm of rain recorded in Woolshed, a town at 556 meters elevation in the Great Dividing Range. Storm surge as high as 5 meters was reported in Cardwell with 3 meters of storm surge reported in Clump Point and 2.3 meters of storm surge reported in Townsville. Because the cyclone struck 500-1000 km north of the region worst-hit by flooding last month, as well as the storms relatively fast forward speed, Yasi's inland flooding effect is expected to be minimal. Still, there is a continued risk of localized flash flooding well inland today, as a much weakened Yasi continues to push to the west-southwest. Elsewhere, the town of Innisfail is isolated by flood waters. Below Innisfail, in the town of Tully, residents reported massive destruction, including roofing blown off homes and downed power lines. To the west, at Tully Heads, at least 20 properties sustained major damage, while a similar number suffered moderate damage and a dozen more experienced damage considered minor. Yasi’s strong winds in Tully Heads bent traffic lights in half. Below Tully Heads in the town of Cardwell, structural damage to homes was severe; early reports indicated damage to more than 200 homes. Approximately 60 properties suffered major structural damage, including the loss of roofs, while 100 others sustained damage considered moderate. Most of the remainder were reported to have minor damage. A two story apartment in Cardwell was flooded in its lower level. Between Cardwell and Townsville, the town of Ingham is cut off by localized flooding and all power remains out. Flooding is expected to reach 12.2 meters, or similar to what the town experienced during the heavy floods of Christmas 2010. Farther south, in Townsville, there are reports of minor structural damage, including damage to shopping centers in the central business district. Some buildings along The Strand (the shoreline) lost metal roofing. At the Holiday Inn, there was damage to glazing. At present, 85 per cent of city is without power and debris is strewn across streets. During low tide yesterday, storm tide in Townsville was 2.3m, or 0.4m above Highest Astronomical Tide. Yasi also caused damage to Queensland’s agriculture; cane growers believe they could experience half a billion dollars worth of losses as a result of the cyclone. Banana growing industries are also expected to take a big hit; indeed, early predictions suggest that 75% of the nation’s banana supply and half the region’s sugarcane have been obliterated by Yasi’s winds. While there were no reports of deaths or serious injuries following the storm, two men were reported missing and thousands have been left homeless. For many, disaster relief payments have been activated. Using the latest available on the meteorological parameters and storm track of Cyclone Yasi together with the AIR Cyclone Model for Australia, AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses to onshore residential and commercial properties and contents from the Category 5 cyclone will be between AUD 350 million (USD 354 million) and AUD 1.5 billion (USD 1.5 billion). This would mean that losses from this storm may well exceed those from Cyclone Larry in 2006. Larry—which followed a similar path to Yasi, though it tracked slightly to the north and had less intense winds—caused losses of about AUD 540 million (in 2006 AUD), according to the Insurance Council of Australia. The Insurance Council’s estimate lies within the estimated range posted by AIR in real time in 2006. AIR's insured loss estimates reflect: • Insured physical damage to onshore property (residential, commercial/ industrial), both structures and their contents • Business interruption losses They do not reflect: • Loss to offshore properties, pleasure boats and marine crafts, and automobile • Losses to uninsured properties • Storm surge losses and inland flooding • Demand surge—the increase in costs of materials, services, and labor due to increased demand following a catastrophic event Losses to infrastructure • Losses from other non-modeled losses, including loss adjustment expenses and landslide • Losses from crop/plantations are not included. The AIR cyclone team has analyzed the available data on this event and has posted a range of scenarios on the Scenarios page of the ALERT website. It should be understood, however, that considerable uncertainty still exists, both with respect to the event parameters and with take-up rates, or the percentage of properties actually insured against the cyclone peril. As clients review their estimated losses from this event, AIR recommends the following best practices to enhance the interpretation and communication of results: • Due to unique nature of this event clients should use the ALERT event set to estimate company losses rather than relying on similar events from the stochastic event catalogue; • Always communicate the range of loss estimates produced by the event sets provided on the ALERT site, not just any single estimate or just the maximum; • Always make sure the loss results include demand surge; • Benchmark estimated losses against losses based on market share information and industry loss estimates when appropriate; • Present any known issues with exposure data quality that might affect the loss results; • Disclose any adjustments made to reflect non-modeled costs such as loss adjustment expenses, fire following, tsunamis or landslides.