Tropical Storm Ernesto

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: August 8, 2012, 11:00:00 AM

Ernesto is currently positioned in the central interior of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving west at about 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph, and the estimated minimum central pressure has increased to 990 millibars. Ernesto made landfall overnight as a Category 1 hurricane near the coastal community of Mahahual. Although Ernesto made landfall slightly closer to Cozumel than expected, no significant damage to exposures on that island has been reported. Only minor damage, including fallen trees, ripped billboards, power outages, and broken windows have been reported in Mahahual and surrounding communities near Ernesto’s landfall point. After monitoring the storm’s progress on Tuesday, Mexico’s state oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos, decided not to evacuate oil rigs along the gulf coast. Government officials advised tourists to leave resorts in Mahahual and Bacalar, and take shelter in the city of Chetumal.

Forecast and Intensity

Ernesto’s current westward motion is expected to continue throughout the day. While additional weakening is expected while Ernesto remains over land today, the storm is expected to re-intensify after the center emerges on Thursday over the Bay of Campeche of the southern Gulf of Mexico. The current National Hurricane Center (NHC) intensity forecast calls for Ernesto to regain hurricane strength before making a second landfall along the southern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Thursday evening. However, given the short amount of time Ernesto will spend over water, it is unlikely that Ernesto will re-intensify into more than a marginal hurricane.

Possible Effects of a Second Landfall

Ernesto’s forecasted westward track puts this storm in position to make a second landfall in the vicinity of Veracruz. This city may experience heavy rains and some minor wind damage as a consequence of Ernesto. The Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which line the mainland of eastern Mexico, raise the risk of possible flash flooding or mudslides associated with Ernesto’s potentially heavy rainfall as it makes landfall near Veracruz. AIR will continue to evaluate the impact of Ernesto’s first landfall near Mahahual, and the likelihood for damage in the region of the second projected landfall. However, Ernesto continues to appear to lack potential to cause significant damage and loss.

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Posting Date: August 8, 2012, 11:00:00 AM