Tropical Cyclone Phailin

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: October 11, 2013, 1:00:00 PM

Event Summary

Currently several hundred kilometers off of the eastern coast of India, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin is expected to make landfall on Saturday evening, local time, north of the city of Visakhapatnam. The storm is expected to severely impact areas in the states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.

Fourteen years ago, a super cyclonic storm struck India about 150 km to the northeast of where Phailin is expected to make landfall and caused the deaths of an estimated 10,000 people.

Storm Preparations

Indian authorities have raised a high alert across the eastern coast. The government has asked that the Army, Navy, and Air Force remain on standby. Other government employees have had their holidays canceled. The National Disaster Response Force has deployed 34 teams to carry out evacuation operations and any needed rescue or relief work. An estimated 260,000 people have been moved to higher ground. A total of half a million people are expected to be moved to shelters in advance of the storm, according to Odisha state's Special Relief Commissioner, Pradeep Kumar Mohapatra.

Forecast Track and Intensity

The storm is approximately 400 km off the eastern coast of India in the Bay of Bengal. Phailin, which is about half the size of India, is expected to make landfall Saturday evening, local time, between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and the port of Paradip in Odisha state. Located in a low shear and high sea-surface temperature (greater than 28°C) environment, Phailin is forecast to intensify slightly before landfall, but then weaken to its current intensity at landfall. The storm packs sustained maximum surface wind speeds of 210–220 km/h (130–135 mph) and gusts up to 235 km/h (146 mph), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates Phailin to have maximum sustained wind speeds of 250 km/h (155 mph) and gusts of up to 315 km/h (195 mph). The forecast track is similar to that of the IMD, and intensity at landfall is likewise expected to be close to its current strength (higher than that estimated by the IMD).

Expected Impacts

The IMD expects heavy to very heavy rainfall for most places affected by Phailin, with 20 cm of precipitation expected over a large swath and extremely heavy rainfall (>25 cm) in some areas. Inland flooding is possible. Seas in the affected areas are expected to be rough to very rough. A 3–3.5 m (about 10 to 11 feet) storm surge above astronomical tides is also forecast by the IMD, which would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri, and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

The northeast Indian coast is extremely prone to storm surge flooding, which makes this peril a major concern for low-lying areas. Many of the world's deadliest tropical cyclones have arrived from the Bay of Bengal because of the region's extreme vulnerability to storm surge flooding. 

All cargo operations have ceased at Paradip, one of India’s largest ports and which handles coal, crude oil and iron ore, and all vessels have been ordered to leave the port as well.

Indian authorities warned of extensive damage to crops, village dwellings, and old buildings, as well as disruption of power, water, and rail services. Farmers have been asked to harvest crops if they are ready, or to bundle them together and drain stagnating water from fields to minimize damage.

Exposure at Risk

Historically, the dominant construction type in India has been unreinforced masonry. This construction is typically made from various traditional materials, including adobe, rubble stone, or burnt brick. Unreinforced masonry is still pervasive throughout rural India in low- and mid-rise residential and commercial structures.

Increasingly, modern urban buildings in India are employing more durable construction types, such as confined masonry and reinforced concrete. Moreover, these buildings are incorporating advanced features in their design and are subject to better construction practices and stricter code enforcement. This is particularly true of new high-rise buildings, which are generally made of reinforced concrete, as well as of complex industrial facilities, which often comprise reinforced concrete, steel, and light metal construction.

Inland exposure concentrations are also at risk of tropical cyclones. It is common for systems to persist thousands of kilometers inland before dissipating, producing heavy rainfall that can trigger widespread flooding. Heavy rainfall can produce flooding as rain flows down slopes and collects in low-lying areas, and rainfall causes river- and streambeds to overflow and flood surrounding regions. In 1999, significant rainfall from a Category 5 super cyclone (now called the Odisha or Orissa cyclone) caused widespread flooding in the coastal regions of Odisha state. The area where Phailin is forecast to make landfall, about 150 km to the southwest of the 1999 cyclone, is not as low-lying.

The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor Cyclone Phailin closely. A second NewsALERT is scheduled for tomorrow. Based on storm parameters at landfall, the tropical cyclone team will begin simulations and determine whether a full loss posting is warranted. If a decision is made to issue insured loss estimates, they will be made available on the ALERT website early next week.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 11, 2013, 1:00:00 PM