Tropical Cyclone Hudhud

Post Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 20, 2014, 1:00:00 PM

AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses from Very Severe Cyclone Hudhud will range between USD 100 million (6.0 billion INR) and USD 400 million ( 24 billion INR). AIR’s insured loss estimates assume insurance take-up rates of 3% for residential lines, 20% for commercial, and 30% for industrial. These take-up rates are somewhat higher than state-wide take-up rates and reflect the fact that the majority of losses are coming from Visakhaptnam (Vizag), which has higher insurance penetration compared to the average across Andhra Pradesh. Still, it should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty around these take-up rates.

A Touchstone event set and a windspeed Shapefile are available to ALERT subscribers on the downloads tab.

AIR’s industry insured loss estimates reflect:

• Insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, and industrial), due to wind and precipitation-induced flooding in India
• AIR’s assumed take-up rates—that is, the percentage of properties in India that are insured against wind and flood damage

AIR’s industry insured loss estimates do not include:

• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses to crops
• Losses to auto
• Losses resulting from physical failure of flood defenses
• Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism or civil commotion whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
• Demand surge
• Other non-modeled losses

Very Severe Cyclone Hudhud made landfall on October 12, 2014 between 6:30 and 7:30 UTC near the city of Visakhapatnam on the east coast of India with maximum sustained winds of 87 knots, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Hudhud weakened to a depression after landfall and moved to the north-northwest over south Chhattisgarh. The majority of the insured damage caused by Hudhud is concentrated in Visakhapatnam—the largest city in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh and the third largest city on the east coast of India with a population of 2 million.

In the immediate aftermath of the storm, transportation in and out of Visakhapatnam, also known as Vizag, was cut off due to blocked roads and restricted rail traffic; however, rail and bus services have since been restored. Limited flight services have also resumed at the heavily damaged Vizag airport even though a large portion of the terminal building experienced major damage that included glazing, roof-top covering, air-conditioning unit, computer and communication systems, and electrical connections. The airport’s radar antenna was also completely destroyed.

Vizag’s power grid also suffered major damage as hundreds of electric poles were uprooted due to gusty winds. While full restoration is expected to take more time, power has resumed in parts of the city and personnel from other districts have been called-in to assist with restoration efforts.

Many of the commercial buildings in Asilmetta, Sampath Vinayaka Temple Road, Maddilapalem, and Muralinagar in Vizag, and a reported 48,000 residential homes in Odisha’s southern districts were badly damaged.

Because about 150,000 were evacuated ahead of Cyclone Hudhud’s landfall, the number of fatalities was kept low; the current reported toll stands at 24. However, a recent report out of Kathmandu, Nepal also attributed the deaths of at least 38 hikers to blizzards caused by the remnants of Cyclone Hudhud.

AIR Modeled Losses

A crucial component of providing an accurate insured loss estimate is ascertaining the storm’s exact strength at landfall. However, this is a challenging task, because as is typical, there are discrepancies in the storm’s reported intensity from various agencies due to satellite-based algorithms, parameter estimation, and averaging times.

For example, the IMD provides 3-minute average sustained wind speeds while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) provides 1-minute average sustained wind speeds. Therefore, the IMD reported that Hudhud’s maximum sustained wind speed was 170-180 km/h just prior to landfall and 150-160 km/h at landfall. Conversely, the JTWC reported that Hudhud’s maximum sustained wind speed was 115 knots (213 km/h) just prior to landfall and 105 knots (194 km/h) at landfall. In addition, the IMD reported that the storm’s minimum central pressure was 960 mb while the JTWC reported it as 937 mb.

To produce loss estimates for Hudhud, AIR used track information from the IMD and a formula derived for North Indian Ocean basin tropical cyclones, which relates central pressure to maximum gradient wind speed. This formula is a justifiable choice since central pressure is a more reliable parameter than wind speed for estimating storm intensity, as barometers are much more durable than anemometers. In addition, the formula has been validated using data from the IMD for previous storms in which anemometers have remained intact. AIR also used the IMD track information to consider several different scenarios that reflect a range of R_max values.

Based on running these scenarios in the AIR India Tropical Cyclone model, AIR estimates that industry-wide insured losses will range between USD 100 million (6.0 billion INR) and USD 400 million ( 24 billion INR). The wide range in the modeled insured losses reflects uncertainty in the meteorological parameters associated with this event. There is additional uncertainty in the take-up rates (insurance penetration) for Andhra Pradesh.

A Touchstone event set and a windspeed Shapefile are available to ALERT subscribers on the downloads tab.

Track of Cyclone Hudhud

Post Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 20, 2014, 1:00:00 PM