Typhoon Mujigae 2015

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: October 8, 2015, 5:00:00 PM

The tropical depression that would become Typhoon Mujigae (also called Kabayan) formed on September 30 in the Western Pacific, east of the Philippines. It made landfall in Luzon as a tropical storm on October 2, drenching parts of the island but largely sparing the city of Manila, Philippine’s national capital. The storm exited the Philippines into the South China Sea, where it intensified into a typhoon on October 3 and took aim at the southwestern tip of Guangdong Province in China. Then, just hours before landfall, the typhoon rapidly strengthened into a dangerous Category 3/Category 4 storm, surprising forecasters and the underprepared coastal region.

Mujigae struck the city of Zhanjiang on October 4, battering fishing boats, causing extensive blackouts and travel disruptions, and destroying thousands of homes in the densely populated coastal region. Several powerful tornadoes were spawned and heavy rains caused deadly landslides in western Guangdong. Twenty people have been reported dead, and many more have been injured.

Meteorological Background

Typhoon Mujigae made landfall in China on October 4 at approximately 06:00 UTC (02:00 local time) at 21.3°N, 110.4°W in Guangdong Province. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), maximum sustained wind speeds at landfall were up to 148 km/h and central pressure was 965 mb, making Mujigae a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Local estimates put the landfalling central pressure at 940 mb, with reported wind speeds up to 217 km/h in some locations, making Mujigae a Category 4 storm.

According to the Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Typhoon Mujigae was the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in the province. There were reports of numerous tornadoes associated with rain bands from the tropical cyclone. While tornadoes are rare for this region of China, they can occur from a tropical cyclone.

Mujigae is the 22^nd named storm to form in the Northwest Pacific basin in 2015, and the sixth storm to make landfall in China. The five previous tropical cyclones struck China during the summer months of June through August, with the exception of Dujuan, which made landfall at Category 1 on September 29. With a few months remaining in the tropical cyclone season, it is possible for China to see more landfalling storms.

Reported Impacts

Mujigae arrived at a time when tens of thousands of people had traveled to Southern China to celebrate the October 1 National Day holiday. Ahead of the storm’s arrival, authorities evacuated more than 200,000 people from at-risk areas and called more than 60,000 fishing boats and 35,000 offshore workers back to port.

According to state authorities, some 6 million people were affected by the typhoon, including 3.5 million in Guangdong Province, more than 2 million in neighboring Guangxi Province, and nearly half a million in Hainan Province. The typhoon caused widespread power outages, cut off water supplies and communications networks in some areas, grounded dozens of flights, and suspended high-speed trains. Trees were toppled, vehicles were overturned, streets were flooded, and roofs were ripped off of homes. Damage has also been reported to industrial facilities, including to crucial infrastructure of the region’s steel plants.

The tornadoes triggered by the typhoon in and around the cities of Guangzhou and Foshan led to especially severe damage and seven deaths. Landslides caused by heavy rains also caused seven deaths in the western portion of Guangdong Province.

In worst-affected Guangdong Province, authorities report more than 3,000 destroyed homes and 282,000 hectares of affected cropland as of October 6 (note that these estimates issued a few days ago are likely to rise). Direct economic losses are estimated at more than CNY 23 billion (USD 3.6 billion). In Guangxi Province, authorities report 19,000 destroyed homes and direct economic losses of more than CNY 1.6 billion as of today, October 8. In Hainan Province, more than 170,000 hectares of cropland was affected, and direct economic losses are estimated at CNY 136 million (21 USD million), as of October 6.

Insurance Impact

The region affected by Typhoon Mujigae has seen rapid development in recent years and contains both urban and rural areas. Houses in coastal regions of Guangdong are commonly masonry or reinforced concrete with clay tile roofs, and could experience damage primarily to the building envelope at the storm’s wind speeds. Better-engineered apartment buildings are also common, and these may experience significant nonstructural damage, especially to roofs and wall claddings.

Insurance take-up for typhoon coverage is low in China, particularly for residential risks. When coverage exists, wind and flood generally are covered together, in the same policy. The majority of insured losses will result from wind and flood damage to commercial and industrial buildings. Light metal industrial buildings are especially vulnerable to typhoons. Agricultural damage is also expected, particularly to rice, the region’s leading crop.

The center of the storm came ashore some 400 km away from Hong Kong, where the region’s heaviest concentration of insured exposure is located. No severe damage was reported in Hong Kong, which will help limit total insured losses. 

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Posting Date: October 8, 2015, 5:00:00 PM