Hurricane Nicole

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: October 13, 2016, 10:00:00 AM

Hurricane Nicole made landfall in Bermuda during the late morning (local time) of October 13, 2016, as a Category 3 storm. As of 15:00 UTC on October 13, 2016, it was about 10 miles east of Bermuda, moving northeastward at 16 mph with a minimum central pressure of 961 mb and maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The center of Nicole is projected to move away from Bermuda later on today. Continued movement to the northeast is forecast along with an increase in forward speed in the next 24–48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days as the center of Nicole moves farther out to sea and into cooler waters.

Meteorological Summary

Hurricane Nicole—the strongest hurricane to impact Bermuda in 13 years since Fabian in 2003, the eye of which passed just west of the island—is the fourth storm to put Bermuda under a hurricane warning in the last three years. In 2015, Hurricane Joaquin passed 65 miles west-northwest of the island as a Category 2 storm after slamming into the Bahamas at Category 4 strength. Two 2014 storms prompted hurricane warnings for Bermuda; Fay, which caused widespread damage even though it was a relatively weak storm, and Hurricane Gonzalo, which made landfall in Bermuda as a Category 2 storm and caused millions of dollars in damage.

While Bermuda landfalls are infrequent, tropical cyclones often pass close enough to cause damage. The Bermuda Weather Service found that damage from tropical cyclones was reported every six to seven years in a local survey dating back to 1609, while the only landfalls recorded by the agency from 1900–2007 were the Havana-Bermuda Hurricane of 1926, the Miami Hurricane of 1948, and Hurricane Arlene  of 1963 (note that Hurricane Emily also made landfall in Bermuda in 1987, although it may not have been included in the Bermuda Weather Service records).

Nicole is a very large storm, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 70 miles outward from the center and tropical storm–force winds extending up to 185 miles outward. At one time, Nicole’s eye reached around 50 miles in diameter; for comparison, Bermuda is approximately 22 miles wide.

Forecast Conditions

Tropical Storm Karl passed east of Bermuda on September 24, 2016, causing coastal erosion and flooding, which could exacerbate the impacts of Hurricane Nicole on the island. Strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous surf have already arrived ahead of the storm, and are expected to worsen due to Nicole’s arrival. More than 200 mm of rainfall is projected, along with storm surge that could raise water levels by upwards of 8 feet above normal tide levels and will be accompanied by large, destructive waves; landfall coinciding with local low tide may help mitigate some storm surge and wave impacts. Swells and rip currents will impact Bermuda for the next few days, and then spread northward along the eastern coast of the United States to the Carolinas, already battered earlier this week by Matthew. Isolated tornadoes are also possible in Bermuda.

Forecast Track and Intensity

Increased forward speed along the northeastward track is projected through the next 24–48 hours, with the center of Nicole moving away from Bermuda later on October 13 and gradual weakening over the following days.

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Posting Date: October 13, 2016, 10:00:00 AM