Hurricane Nicole

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: October 12, 2016, 10:00:00 AM

Bermuda is bracing itself for the arrival of Hurricane Nicole as a Category 2 storm at around 1 p.m. local time tomorrow, Thursday, October 13. Nicole is expected to pass within 30 miles of the island—considered a direct hit—and to inflict about 26 hours of storm activity. Bermuda is no stranger to hurricanes and is hunkering down in advance of the storm. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Bermuda tonight and hurricane conditions to follow in the morning.

Schools, businesses, and services are closing down; flights, and bus and ferry services have been suspended; and three cruise ships have canceled planned calls. American Airlines and Air Canada are among several that have canceled flights to the island. Hamilton docks are expected to close today, the Bermuda Stock Exchange will close at 2 p.m., government offices will shut at 3 p.m., and the causeway linking the mainland to the airport on St. David's Island will be closed at 11 p.m.

Exposure at Risk

Bermuda is a small island nation totaling just 21.6 square miles—about one-third the size of Washington, D.C. Its population was estimated in 2016 to be about 70,000, and is distributed relatively evenly through the islands. The highest point in the country, Town Hill, is not quite 250 feet above sea level; about 14.8% of the land is arable and roughly 20% is forested.

Buildings in Bermuda are designed to withstand sustained wind speeds up to 110 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane) and gusts up to 150 mph. The codes are strictly enforced. Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories high and constructed of “Bermuda Stone,” a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced masonry and concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. Unprotected doors and windows can increase a building’s vulnerability to damage from flying debris.

Newer and well-maintained buildings that meet Bermuda’s codes are expected to stand up well to Nicole’s winds, with only minor damage to roof areas directly exposed to the storm. Roofs in Bermuda are typically made of limestone tiles cemented together. When tiles blow off, some damage to interior walls and finishes, as well as to contents is likely to result. Some roofs are made of other materials, such as wood or asphalt shingles, and occasionally foam roofing, and are more vulnerable. It is likely that Nicole will cause damage to trees, electricity poles, signage, and communications towers.

Forecast and Intensity

Nicole is currently a very symmetric hurricane with a large and distinct eye, from the center of which hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles. As well as sustained winds above 100 mph, Nicole will likely deliver 4–8 inches of precipitation and a dangerous storm surge that could reach 6–8 feet depending on the exact track of the storm.

              Figure 1. Hurricane Nicole five-day track, as of 11 a.m. on October 12, 2016. (Source: NOAA)

Hurricane Nicole is expected to increase its forward speed and to turn toward the north-northeast tomorrow as it approaches Bermuda. Thanks to cooler sea surface temperatures and increased wind shear encountered later tomorrow Nicole is expected to weaken significantly after passing Bermuda and to become a post-tropical cyclone—but one maintaining winds of near hurricane strength. Ultimately the cyclone is expected to slow down as it interacts with a large cut-off low well to the southeast of Atlantic Canada and to meander over the north Atlantic before dissipating.

The AIR tropical cyclone team will continue to monitor Hurricane Nicole and provide updates as warranted.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 12, 2016, 10:00:00 AM