Typhoon Haima

Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: October 19, 2016, 12:00:00 PM

Typhoon Haima made landfall on northeastern Luzon in the Philippines near Baguio Pt., Peñablanca, Cagayan, as a Category 4-equivalent storm, at 11 p.m. local time (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday, October 19, 2016, with JMA-estimated wind speeds of 212 km/h (132 mph), gusts reaching 298 km/h (185 mph), and a minimum central pressure of 915 mb. Arriving just three days after Typhoon Sarika—a Category 3–equivalent storm—made landfall on Luzon, Haima (known as Lawin in the Philippines) threatens the already saturated island with dangerous flooding and landslides, as well as significant wind damage.

The track for Typhoon Haima takes this intense and quite large storm across Luzon in the Philippines to mainland China. (Source: JMA)

Haima is expected to primarily impact Apayao and Ilocos Norte provinces as it crosses Luzon, although because of the tremendous size of the storm, other areas of Luzon—the largest and most populated of the Philippine islands—should expect high wind and notable precipitation.

Damage and Disruption

The third typhoon this year to make landfall in the northern Philippines, Typhoon Haima strengthened to a “super typhoon” early Wednesday local time—equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic—with wind speeds reported by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 225 km/h (140 mph) and gusts as high as 315 km/h (196 mph). The massive storm weakened slightly before making landfall, although, as the second typhoon to make landfall on Luzon in a week, Haima could cause some substantial damage to property in the impacted area. In addition, Haima’s storm surge—estimated at upwards of 5 meters (15 feet)—could result in substantial damage along the coast and exacerbate precipitation-induced flooding.

Seas were dangerously rough as the storm approached, threatening marine traffic from Luzon down to the island of Samar. In Cagayan Province—an agricultural region that often experiences flash floods and mudslides—the government initiated forced evacuations from towns along the Cagayan River in anticipation of Haima’s windy, wet wrath.

Because of Typhoon Haima’s size—hurricane winds stretched some 115 kilometers (70 miles) from the eye as it approached land—millions of residents of the Philippines could be impacted by the storm. Signal number 5—the highest (PAGASA) warning—has been issued for Cagayan and Isabela provinces in northeastern Luzon, while nearly 30 other provinces and numerous islands are under lower warning signals. PAGASA has even compared Haima’s impact potential to the legendary 2013 Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 6,000.

Exposure at Risk

Northern Luzon experiences typhoons more frequently than any other part of the Philippines. The Metro Manila region, in southern Luzon, is the nation’s economic and political center; little commercial or industrial activity occurs in Luzon’s other regions, which are lightly populated and mountainous and/or agricultural.

In rural areas of the Philippines, lighter materials—such as wood frame with galvanized iron or aluminum roofs—are often used for residential buildings. In contrast, urban residential structures are generally made of concrete block with metal roofs, although hollow concrete is also used. Masonry residences and high-rise apartments of steel construction can also be found in the cities. The majority of all commercial and industrial buildings are reinforced concrete or steel, although masonry is often used for smaller commercial establishments. Building codes are not strictly enforced.

One- and two-story buildings of mixed construction (concrete and wood) are common in Luzon. In Manila, high-rise commercial and apartment buildings are generally built to stricter code requirements. In addition, commercial and apartment buildings usually have stronger foundations than residential buildings, and these foundations provide stronger resistance to flood loads.

Insurance Impact

Typhoon and flood damage are usually covered together in the Philippines and are offered under separate fire policies with named perils extensions. Landslides and flash floods could cause significant water and structural damage. Flood is much more damaging to the lower floors of multi-story buildings, making the commercial establishments on the first floor of many apartment buildings in the Philippines vulnerable to flood conditions. However, given that insurance penetration is typically no more than 10% to 20%, insured losses are not expected to be significant as a result of this event.

Forecast Track and Intensity

After crossing Luzon, Haima will enter the South China Sea as a somewhat weaker storm. As Haima steers northwest, the storm is forecast to buffet Taiwan with high wind, and the Central Weather Bureau there has issued strong wind advisories.

Haima is expected to make landfall in eastern Guangdong Province, China, on Friday local time. Although current projections have the storm missing Hong Kong, authorities there have issued a “black rainstorm warning,” which cautions “serious flooding and traffic congestion.”

Haima is projected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday evening, October 20, or Friday morning, October 21 (Thursday afternoon or evening, October 20, UTC).

Landfall | Downloads
Posting Date: October 19, 2016, 12:00:00 PM