Typhoon Meranti

Post Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: September 29, 2016, 5:30:00 AM

AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses in mainland China from Typhoon Meranti will be between USD 650 million (CNY 4.3 billion) and USD 1.15 billion (CNY 7.7 billion).

AIR’s insured loss estimates reflect take-up rates that vary by line of business and province. Note, however, that there is considerable uncertainty around these take-up rates.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:

• Insured physical damage to onshore property (residential, commercial, and Construction All Risks/Erection All Risks) for both structures and their contents due to wind and precipitation-induced flooding in mainland China
• AIR’s assumed take-up rates—that is, the percentage of properties in mainland China that are actually covered against wind and flood damage

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses from storm surge
• Losses to crops, livestock, aquaculture, and poultry
• Losses to auto
• Losses resulting from physical failure of flood defenses
• Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
• Demand surge
• Other non-modeled losses

Storm Summary

Meranti experienced rapid intensification September 11–12, with wind speed increasing more than 150 km/h (95 mph) in a 24-hour period, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Super Typhoon Meranti delivered very strong wind, high storm surge, and flooding precipitation to southern Taiwan as it passed through Luzon Strait near noon local time on Wednesday, September 14, 2016. It was the strongest storm in the world this year and the most intense typhoon since Super Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines in 2013. Although Meranti did not make landfall on Taiwan, much of the country was impacted by high winds and substantial precipitation—rainfall totals as great as 700 millimeters (28 inches) have been reported—due to the massive, 560-kilometer (350-mile) wind field.

Having passed south of Taiwan on September 14, Typhoon Meranti made landfall at 3:05 a.m. local time on Thursday, September 15, in the Xiang'an District of Xiamen City, in eastern China's Fujian Province. Following its interaction with Taiwan, Meranti weakened significantly as it approached China and it came ashore with a JMA-estimated central pressure of 940 mb, the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane—the strongest typhoon in the region since 1949.

Meranti closely follows deadly Typhoon Nepartak, which struck central and southern Taiwan and coastal China in July.

Reported Impacts

As Super Typhoon Meranti passed through the Strait of Luzon, just off the southern coast of Taiwan, the storm brought rough seas, damaging surf, high storm surge, and heavy precipitation—in addition to high winds—to southern Taiwan, resulting in downed trees and power lines, some coastal flooding, and mudslides in mountainous regions. Dozens of injuries and one death were reported in Taiwan.

According to government authorities, nearly 1 million households lost power in southern Taiwan, and more than 700,000 had their water supply disrupted; two nuclear power plants reportedly were shut as a precaution. Throughout southern Taiwan, schools and businesses were closed for several days, including in Kaohsiung City and the counties of Hualilen, Penghu, Pingtung, and Taitung.

In China, Meranti produced prodigious precipitation, as well as strong and damaging winds. The cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou experienced widespread power outages, flooding, disrupted water supplies, and fallen trees. Fishing boats were recalled and ferry services suspended. Many flights and train services were also canceled. Schools and kindergartens in coastal cities closed and tens of thousands of people were evacuated, disrupting the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

Authorities in Fujian Province reported that 18 people died. Direct economic losses were estimated by provincial authorities at CNY 16.9 billion and 18,300 houses damaged. A Song dynasty wooden bridge was washed away in Yongchun County, and three historic bridges, similarly about 800 years old, were damaged in Quanzhou. In Zhejiang Province, 10 people were reported killed, and more than 900 houses collapsed; rural areas experienced landslides and flash floods.

AIR Modeled Losses

A crucial component of providing an accurate insured loss estimate is ascertaining the storm’s exact strength at landfall. However, this is a challenging task because there are typically discrepancies in the storm’s reported intensity from various agencies due to satellite-based algorithms, parameter estimation, and averaging times. For example, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides 10-minute average sustained wind speeds while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) provides 1-minute average sustained wind speeds.

To produce loss estimates for Meranti, AIR used track information from the JMA and a formula for relating central pressure to maximum gradient wind speed based on historical storm data for the Northwest Pacific. Central pressure is a more reliable parameter than wind speed for estimating storm intensity, as barometers are more durable than anemometers. Modeled wind speeds and precipitation totals were carefully compared against available observations in order to ensure an accurate representation of observed conditions, and a range of possible scenarios has been provided to account for uncertainty due to a very limited number of available observations.

Based on running these scenarios in the AIR Typhoon Model for China, AIR estimates that industrywide insured losses in mainland China are likely to range between USD 650 million (CNY 4.3 billion) to USD 1.15 billion (CNY 7.7 billion). The wide range in the modeled insured losses reflects uncertainty in the meteorological parameters associated with this event. There is additional uncertainty in the take-up rates (insurance penetration) for much of the region.

Post Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 29, 2016, 5:30:00 AM