Hurricane Florence 2018

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: September 11, 2018, 3:00:00 PM

As of 11 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 11, Hurricane Florence was located about 390 miles south of Bermuda and 905 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, at 26.7°N, 65.3°W, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and a central pressure of 950 mb. Florence is moving west-northwest at 16 mph toward the U.S. East Coast; a slight increase in speed is expected over the next two days.

Florence is currently a Category 4 hurricane and may intensify to a Category 5 hurricane in the next 24 hours, with landfall forecast late Thursday night or early Friday morning at Category 4 intensity. The NHC has issued a hurricane watch from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border. Hurricane conditions are possible within that area by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Thursday morning. Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 40 miles from Florence’s center, and tropical storm–force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.

This storm is predicted to produce dangerous flooding and storm surge. A storm surge watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico rivers in North Carolina.. There is some indication the storm may slow down and potentially stall as it reaches landfall. Total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts up to 30 inches, are possible over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and northern South Carolina through Saturday. Florence’s currently forecast track is unusual in that it is not expected to continue its motion northwestward into the Mid-Atlantic as storms in this area typically do.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Florence from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone^®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER^®, the SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.

AIR will be delivering SSEs roughly every 24 hours as the storm approaches land, and will continue to monitor the storm after landfall. AIR will also be monitoring the anticipated extreme rainfall and may issue flood-related ALERT deliverables after landfall. We will provide ongoing updates as the situation unfolds and as our timeline for further deliverables develops.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 11, 2018, 3:00:00 PM

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.

Product	File Type	Description	Download
CATRADER	xls	Selected set of stochastic events	​
TOUCHSTONE	xls	Selected set of stochastic events	​

Additional Downloads

Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.

Title	File Type	Description	Download
Florence Scenario Overview	.xls	This file contains a track map, parametric information, and estimated industry gross insured losses for the four similar event scenarios provided by AIR for Florence. Losses were derived using 2018 indexed take up rates, apply only to United States exposures, and include demand surge.	​