Typhoon Jebi

Post Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: September 9, 2018, 7:00:00 PM

AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses from Typhoon Jebi, which made landfall in Japan on September 4, will be between JPY 257 billion (USD 2.3 billion) and JPY 502 billion (USD 4.5 billion).

ALERT™ subscribers can now download Touchstone^®, CATRADER^®, and Touchstone Re™ event sets and a shapefile for the wind speed footprint for Typhoon Jebi from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website.

AIR’s loss estimates explicitly capture residential, commercial, industrial, automobile, and agriculture/mutual losses from wind and storm surge. These loss estimates were derived based on AIR’s high-resolution Industry Exposure Database (IED) for Japan and the event’s hazard measures, including wind speed and surge inundation depth, modeled using the event-based probabilistic AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for Japan. AIR’s loss estimates and event footprint reflect all affected areas in Japan.

The range in AIR’s loss estimates also reflects uncertainty in the payment of damage to buildings, damage to contents, and extra expenses. Please note that total economic losses are expected to be higher than industry insured loss estimates.

See below for additional information on what AIR’s loss estimates capture.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:

• Insured damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural/mutual), both structures and their contents, and automobile

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

• Losses from precipitation-induced flood
• Landslide
• Losses to land
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses to CAR/EAR, marine hull, or marine cargo lines of business
• Business interruption losses
• Loss adjustment expenses
• Demand surge—the increase in costs of materials, services, and labor due to increased demand following a catastrophic event; demand surge can be applied by AIR software users who want to account for this variable

Typhoon Jebi Recap

Typhoon Jebi, which struck Japan midday on September 4 on the island of Shikoku at the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane, was the strongest typhoon to make landfall in Japan in 25 years. It rapidly made a second landfall on the main island of Honshu, striking the major urban centers of Kobe and Osaka with winds which flipped vehicles, ripped cladding off buildings, and downed trees and power lines. Jebi crossed Honshu into the Sea of Japan and traveled north, raking Japan’s west coast with damaging winds and torrential rain. At least ten people have died—one from a collapsing building. Along with major damage to buildings and infrastructure, there has been significant business interruption, particularly to manufacturing and tourism, with widespread shipping and transportation impacts.

Meteorological Summary

Four days before landfall, Jebi explosively intensified to become a super typhoon with wind gusts of over 190 mph, the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane. As it headed north toward Japan, Jebi encountered wind shear and cooler water, which caused it to lose some strength and undergo an eyewall replacement, but it was still an intense and potentially dangerous storm as it approached Japan. The ground was still saturated from previous storms as Jebi drew close, prompting the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to issue warnings for potential flash floods and landslides.

Typhoon Jebi initially made landfall in Shikoku, the smallest of Japan’s four main islands, at around 12:00 local time (03:00 UTC) on Tuesday, September 4, with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 180 km/h (112 mph). Jebi made a second landfall shortly after on the main island of Honshu, striking the city of Kobe, 30 km west of Osaka, at about 14:00 local time (05:00 UTC). Storm surge inundated parts of Osaka Prefecture, with a potentially record-breaking storm tide reported in that area. Intense rainfall accompanied the storm, with a recorded rate of 100 mm (3.9 inches) of rain in an hour at the tourist city of Kyoto, and more than 500 millimeters (nearly 20 inches) of rain total was measured in some areas, but reports suggest there were no major inland floods or landslides. Jebi passed rapidly northeast across the mainland, and by nightfall Tuesday, the storm crossed Ishikawa Prefecture and moved out to the Sea of Japan. The storm maintained its typhoon strength over the Sea of Japan as it tracked north along the coast, only weakening to tropical storm intensity early Wednesday, local time, as it passed the island of Hokkaido. Wind and torrential precipitation continued to affect the western coast up to Hokkaido overnight.

Detailed track for Typhoon Jebi, August 28-September 5 (Source: Digital Typhoon) 

Reported Damage and Disruption

In advance of the storm, Japanese authorities issued evacuation orders to about 49,000 people and evacuation warnings to over two million in people in 13 prefectures, including Osaka and Ishikawa. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was supervising response efforts, told Japanese citizens on Monday, September 3, to “take action to protect your lives.” More than 8,000 residents had sought shelter in evacuation shelters, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA).

Over 2 million households lost power in eight prefectures, including Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo, according to Kansai Electric Power Co. More than 300 residential buildings in 17 prefectures were damaged or destroyed.

Social media showed images and videos of toppled scaffolding, cladding and roofs being ripped away, and storm surge inundating buildings. Many vehicles were blown away by high winds to pile against structures, some were swept away by storm surge, and some reportedly caught fire, which was attributed to an electrical shortage in the salt water.

Train services across the country, including the bullet train, were halted by damaged tracks and power outages, with services to come back online Thursday. In Kyoto, the train station roof was partly ripped off by wind. Ferry services were canceled and roadways were blocked with debris. Winds and rough seas caused damage to ships and ports in Kobe and Osaka.

Hundreds of domestic and international flights were cancelled in advance of the storm, and disruptions are ongoing; major airlines issued travel alerts for airports including Fukuoka, Nagoya, Kansai, and both Tokyo airports. Kansai International Airport, Japan’s third largest, has been shut down. Located on two man-made islands in Osaka Bay, it had several of its runways inundated by the storm surge, with some planes partly submerged, and an empty oil tanker crashed into the only bridge that connects the islands to the mainland, damaging the bridge and the gas lines to the airport. Authorities said Thursday that Kansai may remain closed for a week.

There has been widespread business interruption, particularly to manufacturing and tourism. Production was suspended at several plants because of worker safety issues. Kansai Airport plays a significant shipping role in the region, and the closure will disrupt supply chains. Affected businesses include those in the industrial and manufacturing areas in Osaka, Hyogo, and Wakayama Prefectures. Local auto, electronics, and equipment manufacturers include Toyota, Panasonic, and Daikin. The popular tourist region is also suffering the loss traffic from Kansai. Tourist sites like the popular Universal Studios Japan in Osaka experienced closures, and local parks, shrines, and world heritage sites had downed trees that damaged structures.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download Touchstone^®, CATRADER^®, and Touchstone Re™ event sets and a shapefile of the wind speed footprint for Typhoon Jebi from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website.

Post Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 9, 2018, 7:00:00 PM

Simulated Event Set

Note: The "All simulated scenarios" set consists of all the events simulated by AIR using the event's actual parameters. The "Select simulated scenarios" set consists of a subset of the full distribution that is most representative of the range of potential industry losses.

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

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