Typhoon Mangkhut

Post Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: September 25, 2018, 6:00:00 PM

AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses from Typhoon Mangkhut in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau will be between USD 1 billion and USD 2 billion.

ALERT^TM subscribers can download Touchstone^®, CATRADER^®, and Touchstone Re^TM event sets, loss-based similar stochastic events, and shapefiles of the wind speed footprint for Typhoon Mangkhut from the Downloads tab. The Touchstone, Touchstone Re, and CATRADER event sets contain a selected set of simulated scenarios of the actual event based on real-time observations and data, and considering uncertainty in the currently available information. The selected set of loss-based similar stochastic events (SSEs) represent the closest matches from our stochastic catalog of events to the loss footprint for each of the selected set of simulated scenarios for the actual event.

AIR’s loss estimates for Hong Kong and Macau explicitly capture residential, commercial, auto, and agricultural losses from wind, precipitation-induced flood, and storm surge (Hong Kong only). These loss estimates were derived based on AIR’s industry exposure database for Southeast Asia and the event’s hazard measures, including wind speed, precipitation, and surge inundation depth (Hong Kong only), modeled using the AIR Typhoon Model for Southeast Asia. AIR’s loss estimates and event footprint reflect all affected areas of Hong Kong and Macau.

AIR’s loss estimates for mainland China explicitly capture residential, commercial, industrial, and Construction All Risks/Erection All Risks losses from wind and precipitation-induced flood. These loss estimates were derived based on AIR’s industry exposure database for mainland China and the event’s hazard measures, including wind speed and precipitation, modeled using the AIR Typhoon Model for China. AIR’s loss estimates and event footprint reflect all affected areas in mainland China.

See below for additional information on what AIR’s loss estimates capture.

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:

• Insured wind and precipitation-induced flood damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial and Construction All Risks/Erection All Risks) for mainland China
• Insured wind, storm surge and precipitation-induced flood damage to property (residential, commercial, and agricultural, including business interruption) for Hong Kong
• Insured wind and precipitation-induced flood damage to property (residential, commercial, and agricultural, including business interruption) for Macau
• Insured damage to automobiles for Hong Kong and Macau
• AIR’s assumed take-up rates—that is, the percentage of properties that are actually covered against wind and flood damage

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses in Guam, the Philippines, or any other territory outside of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau
• Landslide
• Losses to land
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses to crops, livestock, aquaculture, and poultry
• Losses resulting from physical failure of flood defenses and landslides
• Losses from storm surge in Macau and mainland China
• Losses to automobiles and losses from business interruption in mainland China
• Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
• Demand surge
• Other non-modeled losses

Typhoon Mangkhut Recap

After making landfall in the Philippines, Typhoon Mangkhut doused a relatively less densely populated agricultural area of Luzon with 300 mm (12 inches) of rain—with some regions receiving 700 mm (27 inches) of rain—as it trekked across the northern tip of the island, weakening as it interacted with land. By the time it had crossed Luzon into the South China Sea later that day, September 15, Mangkhut had weakened to the intensity of a Category 3 storm.

The storm continued northwestward across the South China Sea over Sunday, September 16, with wind speeds of about 160 km/h (100 mph). As it moved toward landfall in mainland China, Mangkhut bypassed Hong Kong and Macau. The center of the typhoon passed 130 km west of Hong Kong and 70 km west of Macau, both of which felts its effects due to a massive wind field; hurricane-force winds extended 160 km from its center and tropical storm–force winds extended 510 km from its center. Storm surge was as high as 3.38 meters in Tai Po Kau, Hong Kong.

Mangkhut maintained its wind speed and made landfall in Taishan, Guangdong Province, China, at around 08:00 UTC (4 p.m. local time) on September 16 as a Category 3 hurricane, bringing heavy rain and strong wind to the province before weakening to a tropical storm and moving farther inland.

Reported Damage and Disruption

Hong Kong

The No. 10 signal—the alert for the highest level of danger—remained in place for 10 hours on September 16, only one hour shorter than the record set by Typhoon York in September 1999. Record-breaking storm surges were recorded at Quarry Bay and at Tai Po Kau of 2.35 meters and 3.38 meters, respectively, surpassing the previous records of 1.77 meters in Quarry Bay from Typhoon Wanda in 1962 and 3.23 meters at Tai Po Kau from Typhoon Hope in 1979. The surge swept some boats ashore. Heavy precipitation brought waist-high flooding to some areas, inundating buildings.

Glass windows on commercial skyscrapers in Hong Kong were shattered and contents were damaged; authorities said hundreds of windows were smashed across the city. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, toppled signs, and produced wind-borne debris; bamboo scaffolding was ripped from buildings under construction and a crane collapsed on a construction site in Tai Kok Tsui. Transportation suffered disruption across Hong Kong; around 900 flights were delayed or canceled, public transit came to a halt, and roadways were closed—including Ting Kau Bridge, which connects the western New Territories to Tsing Yi. Power outages were also reported and schools were closed. Officials have estimated the number of people injured at 200.

Macau

In the resort city of Macau, the largest gambling hub in the world, all casinos were ordered to close for the first time ever. Power was cut to about 20,000 households in low-lying areas and the inner harbor. Extensive flooding impacted the area, rising above head height in some locations and damaging buildings and contents. Heavy precipitation caused travel disruption, including a large sink hole on the major highway of the Avenue dos Jogos da Asia Oriental. Power outages were also reported and schools were closed. No deaths have been reported.

Mainland China

More than 2 million people were evacuated from southern China after Mangkhut wreaked havoc in Hong Kong, including mandatory evacuations of low-lying areas and anchoring orders for fishing vessels. Authorities issued a red warning, the country’s alert for the highest level of danger. Schools and restaurants were ordered to close.

Reports indicate that 500,000 people have been affected by Mangkhut. Along the coast of southern China, strong winds caused high rises to sway and blew out windows. Heavy precipitation and storm surge flooded coastal hotels and businesses, including hundreds of shops at the Fangcun wholesale tea market in Guangzhou; thousands of vehicles also suffered flood damage. Broken glass and wind-borne debris were strewn across roadways. In Guangdong, home to 100 million people, airports, ferries, and high-speed railways were shut down and most bridges were closed, causing travel disruption. Some deaths have been reported.

ALERT subscribers can download Touchstone, CATRADER, and Touchstone Re event sets, loss-based similar stochastic events, and shapefiles of the wind speed footprint for Typhoon Mangkhut from the Downloads tab.

Post Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 25, 2018, 6:00:00 PM

Simulated Event Set

Note: The "All simulated scenarios" set consists of all the events simulated by AIR using the event's actual parameters. The "Select simulated scenarios" set consists of a subset of the full distribution that is most representative of the range of potential industry losses.

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.

Additional Downloads

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