Hurricane Zeta

Post Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: November 2, 2020, 2:30:00 AM

AIR estimates that industry insured losses to onshore property resulting from Hurricane Zeta’s winds and storm surge will range from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3.5 billion. After evaluation, AIR has determined that the inland flood potential loss related to this event is low.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download Touchstone^®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER^® event sets, loss-based SSEs, and wind and surge shapefiles of the median event for Hurricane Zeta from the Downloads tab.   

Included in the estimates are losses to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles for their building, contents, and time element coverage. See below for additional information:

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates include:

• Insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial, auto), both structures and their contents from winds, wind-borne debris and storm surge
• Additional living expenses (ALE) for residential lines and business interruption losses for commercial lines
• A 5% leakage is assumed to estimate the amount of damage/losses caused by storm surge attributed to wind for residential lines
• The loss estimates for commercial lines reflect insured estimates of storm surge, which is a combination of leakage and take-up depending on the market segment
• For the automobile line, estimates reflect AIR’s view that insurers will pay for all of the storm surge damage in addition to damage from wind

AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

• Losses paid out by the National Flood Insurance Program
• Losses to inland marine, ocean-going marine cargo and hull, and pleasure boats
• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses from extra-contractual obligations
• Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
• Losses resulting from the compromise of existing defenses (e.g., natural and man-made levees)
• Loss adjustment expenses
• Other non-modeled losses, including those resulting from tornadoes spawned by the storm
• Losses for U.S. offshore assets and non-U.S. property

Hurricane Zeta Recap

Hurricane Zeta made landfall at 4 p.m. CDT on October 28 near Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 80 miles south of New Orleans. It then moved quickly northeastward and tracked directly over New Orleans before moving through Mississippi and Alabama, where it weakened to a tropical storm. Its remnants then continued across Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia on Thursday, October 28.

At landfall, Zeta was a high-end Category 2 storm with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 110 mph—just 1 mph shy of a Category 3, which would have classified it as a major hurricane. Zeta was the 27^th named storm of the season—tying the record for number of named storms in the Atlantic, set in 2005—and the 11^th to make landfall in the United States, breaking the previous record for the number of U.S.- landfalling named storms set in 1916. As the fifth named storm to make landfall in Louisiana this season, it also broke the record for the number of named storms to make landfall in Louisiana in one season set in 2002.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall just three weeks after Hurricane Delta and about nine weeks after Hurricane Laura. While Laura and Delta made landfall just 12 miles apart, Zeta made landfall about 150 miles east of their landfall locations and west of where Sally made landfall on September 16. Considering all four of these hurricanes—Sally, Laura, Delta, and Zeta—the entire coastline from eastern Texas near the Louisiana border to the western Florida Panhandle has been impacted by hurricanes so far this season.

Wind

After landfall, Zeta moved through Louisiana and into Mississippi by 10:00 p.m. CDT with gusts of up to 100 mph observed, and hurricane conditions impacted Mississippi and Alabama. By Thursday morning, Zeta had weakened to a tropical storm over central Alabama, although strong gusts continued to impact northeastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia through Thursday as Zeta’s remnants trekked northeastward.

Storm Surge

Hurricane Zeta’s storm surge inundated far into the bayous of southeastern Louisiana. Despite Zeta moving directly over New Orleans, the levees protected that city from storm surge. Inundation in Mississippi and Alabama was confined to coastal areas, with Mississippi’s coast experiencing the largest storm surge. The maximum recorded storm surge at a NOAA tide gauge was 9.23 feet above the NAVD88 datum, at the Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi. Although video footage showed storm surge inundation at some casinos in Biloxi, Mississippi, most of the casinos stayed open during the storm on emergency power and have reported no structural damage. Storm surge flooding reports extend as far east as Mobile Bay, Alabama, where surge inundated the downtown near the convention center.

Reported Damage and Disruption

Zeta knocked out power to 2.6 million homes and businesses, mainly in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. Given Zeta’s fast forward speed, duration effects on property inland were muted. The storm damaged roofs, felled trees, and power lines not only along the Gulf Coast in the vicinity of landfall, but also well inland along its track. The Governor of Louisiana reported “significant damage to homes, to businesses, to infrastructure throughout southeast Louisiana.” Homes across the impacted area had roofs torn off, trees and power lines were downed, streets were flooded, and bridges were damaged; a handful of buildings collapsed, manufactured homes were blown off their footings, boats were tossed from their moorings, and Grand Isle’s levee in Jefferson Parish was breached in three places. Flights at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport were canceled. As of Sunday morning, November 1, according to PowerOutage.us, 124,000+ homes and businesses were still without power in Louisiana.

In coastal communities of Mississippi, roads were under water; storm surge carried boats onto land and inundated cars on roads and in parking garages. Strong winds tore down trees and power lines, ripped off roofs, and toppled church steeples in some areas. As of Sunday morning, November 1, Mississippi reported 58,000+ homes and businesses were without power. In Alabama, the governor reported “Folks are without power and trees are down all across AL.” All county-maintained roads and bridges in Elmore County were deemed impassable until further notice. Schools were damaged, roofs were torn off, homes were damaged by fallen trees, and roads were flooded in some areas. As of Sunday morning, November 1, Alabama reported 111,000+ homes and businesses were without power.

In Georgia, Atlanta was under a tropical storm warning for only the second time ever. Trees and power lines were downed in Fulton and Dekalb counties, and on Thursday, October 29, more than 1 million homes and businesses were without power. The high tree density in and around Metro Atlanta coupled with saturated ground most likely exacerbated tree falls; a similar impact was observed after Hurricane Irma in 2017. As of Sunday, November 1, fewer than 50,000 in Georgia remained without power. Forty schools in Fulton County had no power. At least 15 counties delayed the opening of their early voting sites. In South Carolina and North Carolina, hundreds of trees were downed and about half a million homes and businesses had their power knocked out, although it has since been restored. Highway 14 and Interstate 26 by Landrum were blocked and closed, respectively, along with hundreds of other roads in the area. Parts of Virginia, including Richmond, also experienced toppled trees and power lines, causing power outages in the tens of thousands, since restored.

Post Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: November 2, 2020, 2:30:00 AM

Simulated Event Set

Note: The "All simulated scenarios" set consists of all the events simulated by AIR using the event's actual parameters. The "Select simulated scenarios" set consists of a subset of the full distribution that is most representative of the range of potential industry losses.

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

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