Hurricane Pamela

Similar Stochastic Events | Summary
Posting Date: October 14, 2021, 10:00:00 AM

Category 1 Hurricane Pamela made landfall near the town of Dimas (Estación Dimas), 40 miles northwest of the city of Mazatlán, in the State of Sinaloa, Mexico, on Wednesday, October 13, at approximately 12:00 UTC, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 75 mph (120 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), bringing dangerous storm surge, destructive winds, and torrential rainfall to the states of Sinaloa, Durango, and Nayarit.

ALERT™ subscribers can download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for this event from the Downloads tab of this post. Compatible with Touchstone® and Touchstone Re™ the SSEs were selected based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in Mexico. The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of AIR clients; disclosure to others is prohibited unless noted in your AIR software license.

Losing wind speed as it accelerated north and east over central Mexico, Pamela fell below tropical depression strength Wednesday afternoon and crossed into Texas as a remnant low on Wednesday evening.

The tropical remnants are forecast to bring considerable flash flood and urban flood impacts to portions of Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, and southwest Missouri from Wednesday evening through Thursday. Three to 6 inches of rain were forecast, with isolated totals as high as 8 inches, according to the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center. Rainfall rates as high as 2 to 3 inches per hour were forecast as possible. The south-central portion of Texas and areas farther north were expected to receive some of the highest rainfall totals, as the tropical moisture interacts with another system along a cold front, enhancing rainfall amounts.

Preliminary Reported Damage and Disruption

Pamela impacted both areas of Mexico and the U.S.

Mexico Impacts

In advance of the storm, 40 temporary shelters were opened in the state of Sinaloa. According to local officials, the overall wind damage there was lower than expected, as Pamela was originally forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane. Flash flooding and riverine flooding have been reported causing damage to homes and businesses, as well as minor coastal damage from waves amplified by storm surge. The Mazatlán-Durango highway was temporarily closed to traffic due to landslides.

Sinaloa’s coast is a hub for tourism and fishing industries, particularly in Mazatlán, where reports show damaged building façades, destroyed billboards, fallen trees, downed power lines, and flooded streets. Sinaloa is also a major agricultural center; crops including corn and tomatoes may have suffered damage from the wind and floods. Damages to local municipalities are being still being assessed as power and access is returning.

U.S. Impacts

In advance of the storm, flash flood watches and flood watches were issued for dozens of counties from the southern border of Texas to southeastern Oklahoma, including the metro areas of Austin-San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas-Fort Worth, as well the Texas Hill Country. By late Wednesday afternoon there were at least 115 flights canceled and 191 flights delayed at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. Flooding has closed more than 100 streets around Austin, Texas. Many school districts have delayed openings. No mass power outages have been reported

Unconfirmed estimations from local radar indicate rain totals could have reached 10 inches or more over a large area, particularly in the Texas Hill Country. Flash flood watches remain in effect in some areas though Thursday evening.

This will be the final ALERT for Hurricane Pamela.

Similar Stochastic Events | Downloads
Posting Date: October 14, 2021, 10:00:00 AM

The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of AIR clients; disclosure to others is prohibited.

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.

Product	File Type	Description	Download
TOUCHSTONE / TOUCHSTONE Re	Excel (xls)	Selected set of stochastic events