Typhoon Hinnamnor

Monitoring Update #1 | Summary
Posting Date: September 1, 2022, 4:00:00 PM

Typhoon Hinnamnor has formed in the northwest Pacific.  The storm is currently located at 21.3 degrees North, 125.5 degrees East, and is packing maximum 10-minute sustained winds around 105 knots (120 miles per hour), per the Japan Meteorological Agency.  The storm was briefly classified as a Super Typhoon on Wednesday, and remains a formidable Saffir-Simpson category 3 equivalent storm as of this writing.

The storm’s forecast over the next several days remains quite uncertain, both in terms of track and intensity.  It will wobble nearly stationary east of Taiwan for the next couple of days, before accelerating northward over the weekend.  Some weakening is expected in the short term due to wind shear and cool upwelling of water, though the storm should re-intensify some as the weekend progresses as the storm moves into ocean waters with sea surface temperatures approaching 30 degrees C, if perhaps not quite back to Super Typhoon status. 

Following the move north, the storm will start to curve toward the northeast, but the timing and depth of that turn will be a major bellwether for where and how severe Hinnamnor’s impacts will be on land.  Landfall anywhere from Northeast China to South Korea to Western Japan are all on the table, as is a bypassing scenario where Hinnamnor “shoots the gap” into the Sea of Japan, bypassing both South Korea and Japan on the way.  There is also low confidence in the intensity forecast at this stage too, given changes in sea surface temperatures.

Verisk will closely monitor Hinnamnor and, if similar stochastic events are warranted for a landfall or close bypass, they will be delivered Wednesday morning, September 7, Asia-Pacific time.  An update will be provided on the ALERT website if there are changes in timing or plans prior to that.

Monitoring Update #1 | Downloads
Posting Date: September 1, 2022, 4:00:00 PM