January 13 Update | Summary
Posting Date: January 13, 2025, 12:00:00 AM
More high winds are in the forecast as firefighters continue to battle a series of fires across southern California. The Palisades, Eaton, and Hurst fires all continue to burn across Los Angeles County. Crews have had some success in mitigating the fires over this past weekend, helped by relatively lighter winds, but increasing winds are in the forecast for this week.
ALERT™ subscribers can download an updated list of impacted ZIP codes along with the proportion of total area of each ZIP which is currently within the latest NIFC perimeters for the from the Downloads tab of this posting on the ALERT website.
As of early Monday morning, the Palisades fire had grown to 23,713 acres with 13% containment, the Eaton fire to 14,117 acres with 27% containment, and the Hurst fire was at 799 acres and 89% containment. While damage assessments are ongoing and remain unofficial at this time, CAL FIRE is reporting that more than 12,000 structures may have been damaged or destroyed in these events. While the definition of a “structure” could mean several things, from a shed or outbuilding to a residence or a business, given high average property values in this area (Verisk estimates average residential replacement values in Altadena to be about $1 million, and exceeding $2 million in both Malibu and Pacific Palisades), these are likely to be among the costliest fires in U.S. history. Verisk estimates that there is more than $20 billion in total insurable exposure within the current NIFC perimeter of the Palisades fire and therefore potentially at risk, with at least $7 billion more insurable exposure within the NIFC perimeter of the Eaton fire.
Higher winds are forecast as this week progresses. Red flag warnings remain in effect across Los Angeles County through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will increase Monday, with 45-55 mph gusts possible. Winds are forecast to peak on Tuesday morning through and into Wednesday. A “Particularly Dangerous Situation” red flag warning is in effect for this period across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, including areas impacted by the Hurst fire and nearby, but not directly intersecting, the Palisades or Eaton fires. Later in the week, temperatures are expected to cool and winds subside, but conditions will remain dry with low humidity, as precipitation is not expected until next week.
We will provide our next update on these events on Tuesday, January 14th. Please contact your Verisk representative with any questions.