|Type of posting||Posting date(EST):||Summary||Downloads|
|Similar Stochastic Events||10/14/2021 10:00:00 AM|
|Event Summary||10/12/2021 11:40:00 AM|
Event Summary | Summary
Posting Date: October 12, 2021, 11:40:00 AM
AIR is monitoring Hurricane Pamela, located at 19.9°N, 109.0°W, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and a central pressure of 985 mb, as of 6 a.m. MDT. Pamela is moving north at 13 mph.
NHC Forecast Track and Intensity
Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm later this morning and early afternoon to provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field.
Pamela has made the expected turn to the north and should continue to move northward today. By tonight, Pamela is forecast to move faster to the northeast toward the coast of west-central Mexico. The NHC forecasts steady to rapid strengthening of this storm in the next 24 hours or so.
Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday.
NHC Forecast Hazards
Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane later today and tonight, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area.
Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican states of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur later today and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding.