SUNDAY, APRIL 21, 2019
Hurricane Michael
10/9/2018 10:45:00 AM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 110/16/2018 1:00:00 PM 
Landfall 10/11/2018 9:45:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 310/10/2018 10:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 210/9/2018 10:45:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 110/8/2018 12:15:00 PM 
Posting Date: 10/9/2018 10:45:00 AM

At 8:00 am EDT on October 9, Hurricane Michael was located near 24.5°N, 86.1°W, about 395 miles (635 km) south of Panama City, Florida. The storm’s maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 100 mph (155 km/h), which makes Michael a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The minimum central pressure is 968 mb and it is moving north-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h).

Warnings are now in effect along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A hurricane warning is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwannee River entrance in Florida, and a storm surge warning is in effect from the Okaloosa-Walton County line to the Anclote River in Florida.

Michael is expected to continue northward through tonight, turning toward the northeast on Wednesday as it nears the Florida Panhandle. Recent data from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Michael significantly strengthened in the early morning hours, and additional strengthening is expected. Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico sometime on Wednesday, with maximum winds as high as 120 mph (193 km/h) when it makes landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachicola, Florida. After landfall, Michael is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, cross the coastal southeastern U.S., and then become an extratropical low-pressure system on Saturday somewhere over the North Atlantic.

Due to the forecast intensity and landfall location, significant wind and storm surge damage are expected. Water levels from the storm surge could reach 8–12 feet along the coastline east of the landfall location. In addition to the immediate coastline, hurricane-force winds are expected to extend inland across the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia. Due to rapid forward movement after landfall, rainfall totals of 4–8 inches are expected along Michael’s path.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Michael from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re, and CATRADER®, the SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should only be used for exposures in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Hurricane Michael
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