Hurricane Michael
Status: Closed
Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: October 10, 2018, 11:30:00 AM
At 8:00 am EDT on October 10, Hurricane Michael was located near 29.0°N, 86.3°W, which is about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Panama City, Florida. Maximum sustained winds increased to 145 mph (230 km/h) and minimum central pressure decreased to 933 mb, making Michael the most intense October hurricane on record in terms of minimum central pressure. The storm is moving northward at 13 mph (20 km/h), which will bring Michael near the northern Florida coastline this afternoon.
Warnings are in effect along Florida's Gulf of Mexico coastline. A hurricane warning is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border east to the Suwannee River entrance in Florida, and a storm surge warning is in effect for the Okaloosa-Walton County line, Florida, to Anclote River, Florida, just north of Tampa Bay.
Michael further intensified overnight to become a Category 4 hurricane. If it maintains this intensity, it would be the most intense hurricane on record to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Due to the forecast intensity and landfall location, significant wind and storm surge damage are expected. The highest storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, with the worst storm surge expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach in Florida, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida Panhandle. Hurricane-force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama as Michael moves inland. Due to the fairly rapid forward motion, inland flooding is not expected to be the dominant hazard.
ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Michael from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, the SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should only be used for exposures in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 10, 2018, 11:30:00 AM
Similar Stochastic Event IDs
Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.
Product | File Type | Description | Download |
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CATRADER | xls | Selected set of stochastic events | |
TOUCHSTONE | xls | Selected set of stochastic events | |
Additional Downloads
Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.
Title | File Type | Description | Download |
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Hurricane Michael Scenario Overview | .xls | This file contains a track map, parametric information, and estimated industry gross insured losses for the five similar event scenarios provided by AIR for Hurricane Michael. Losses were derived using 2018 indexed take up rates and include demand surge. These events should only be used with exposures from Florida, Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina, and South Carolina. | |