Hurricane Michael
Status: Closed
Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 9, 2018, 11:45:00 AM
At 8:00 am EDT on October 9, Hurricane Michael was located near 24.5°N, 86.1°W, about 395 miles (635 km) south of Panama City, Florida. The storm’s maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 100 mph (155 km/h), which makes Michael a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The minimum central pressure is 968 mb and it is moving north-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h).
Warnings are now in effect along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A hurricane warning is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwannee River entrance in Florida, and a storm surge warning is in effect from the Okaloosa-Walton County line to the Anclote River in Florida.
Michael is expected to continue northward through tonight, turning toward the northeast on Wednesday as it nears the Florida Panhandle. Recent data from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Michael significantly strengthened in the early morning hours, and additional strengthening is expected. Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico sometime on Wednesday, with maximum winds as high as 120 mph (193 km/h) when it makes landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachicola, Florida. After landfall, Michael is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, cross the coastal southeastern U.S., and then become an extratropical low-pressure system on Saturday somewhere over the North Atlantic.
Due to the forecast intensity and landfall location, significant wind and storm surge damage are expected. Water levels from the storm surge could reach 8–12 feet along the coastline east of the landfall location. In addition to the immediate coastline, hurricane-force winds are expected to extend inland across the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia. Due to rapid forward movement after landfall, rainfall totals of 4–8 inches are expected along Michael’s path.
ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Michael from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, the SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should only be used for exposures in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 9, 2018, 11:45:00 AM
Similar Stochastic Event IDs
Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.
Product | File Type | Description | Download |
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CATRADER | xls | Selected set of stochastic events | |
TOUCHSTONE | xls | Selected set of stochastic events | |
Additional Downloads
Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.
Title | File Type | Description | Download |
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Hurricane Michael Scenario Overview | .xls | This file contains a track map, parametric information, and estimated industry gross insured losses for the six similar event scenarios provided by AIR for Hurricane Michael. Losses were derived using 2018 indexed take up rates and include demand surge. | |