SUNDAY, APRIL 21, 2019
Hurricane Michael
10/10/2018 10:30:00 AM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 110/16/2018 1:00:00 PM 
Landfall 10/11/2018 9:45:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 310/10/2018 10:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 210/9/2018 10:45:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 110/8/2018 12:15:00 PM 
Posting Date: 10/10/2018 10:30:00 AM

At 8:00 am EDT on October 10, Hurricane Michael was located near 29.0°N, 86.3°W, which is about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Panama City, Florida. Maximum sustained winds increased to 145 mph (230 km/h) and minimum central pressure decreased to 933 mb, making Michael the most intense October hurricane on record in terms of minimum central pressure. The storm is moving northward at 13 mph (20 km/h), which will bring Michael near the northern Florida coastline this afternoon.

Warnings are in effect along Florida's Gulf of Mexico coastline. A hurricane warning is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border east to the Suwannee River entrance in Florida, and a storm surge warning is in effect for the Okaloosa-Walton County line, Florida, to Anclote River, Florida, just north of Tampa Bay.

Michael further intensified overnight to become a Category 4 hurricane. If it maintains this intensity, it would be the most intense hurricane on record to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Due to the forecast intensity and landfall location, significant wind and storm surge damage are expected. The highest storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, with the worst storm surge expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach in Florida, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida Panhandle. Hurricane-force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama as Michael moves inland. Due to the fairly rapid forward motion, inland flooding is not expected to be the dominant hazard.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Michael from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re, and CATRADER®, the SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should only be used for exposures in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Hurricane Michael
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