Tropical Storm Henri

Pre-Landfall SSEs #1 | Summary
Posting Date: August 20, 2021, 2:00:00 PM

After Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Tropical Storm Henri this morning, the National Hurricane Center reported at 11 a.m. that the storm was located at 30.4°N 73.7°W with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a central pressure of 996 mb. Henri is moving northwest at 7 mph.

ALERT™ subscribers can download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for this event from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone® and Touchstone Re™, the SSEs were selected based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in the United States. The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of AIR clients; disclosure to others is prohibited unless noted in your AIR software license.

Additional information on Hurricane Grace and Tropical Storm Henri is available to Verisk Real-Time Analytics subscribers. Beginning at initial upgrade to a named storm, and continuing through the event’s life span, subscribers receive data packs that include Respond® forecast wind footprints for active storms four times daily. These footprints can be analyzed in any GIS tool to evaluate the strength, path, and impact of the event as it approaches land. Contact your AIR or Verisk representative to learn more about this and other Verisk Real-Time Analytics that can be paired with ALERT.

NHC Forecast Track and Intensity

Henri is still expected to turn northward tonight and to speed up in that direction tomorrow. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance in terms of where the center of Henri will come ashore, spanning a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. The official NHC track forecast has been nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England, the storm will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast.

NHC Forecast Hazards

Impacts from Henri are expected to extend far from its center. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday.

AIR ALERT Deliverables Plans for the Weekend

AIR plans to issue SSEs for Henri on Saturday and Sunday morning, in addition to issuing SSEs for Hurricane Grace’s second landfall on Saturday morning. We’ll provide an update on plans beyond the weekend on Sunday as well.

Pre-Landfall SSEs #1 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 20, 2021, 2:00:00 PM

The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of AIR clients; disclosure to others is prohibited.

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

Event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.

Product	File Type	Description	Download
TOUCHSTONE / TOUCHSTONE Re	Excel (xls)	Selected set of stochastic events

Additional Downloads

Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.

Henri Scenario Overview	.xls	Insured industry losses, event parameters, a track map, and commentary on today's SSEs.
Henri Track Files	.zip	Track files for today's SSEs for use in any GIS application.