Tropical Storm Henri

Pre-Landfall SSEs #3 | Summary
Posting Date: August 22, 2021, 10:00:00 AM

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been in Henri for much of the night into this morning. After reaching hurricane status yesterday and into the early morning hours today, Henri has weakened to a tropical storm and is moving closer to eastern Long Island and southern New England.

At 9 a.m., the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Tropical Storm Henri was at 40.8°N, 71.4°W, about 35 miles southeast of Montauk Point, New York, and about 70 miles south of Providence, Rhode Island, with a minimum central pressure of 987 mb and maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The storm is moving north-northwest at 16 mph.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading inland across parts of southern New England.

ALERT™ subscribers can download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Henri from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone® and Touchstone Re™, the SSEs were selected based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in the states of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of AIR clients; disclosure to others is prohibited unless noted in your AIR software license.

Additional information on Tropical Storm Henri is available to Verisk Real-Time Analytics subscribers. Beginning at initial upgrade to a named storm, and continuing through the event’s life span, subscribers receive data packs that include Respond® forecast wind footprints for active storms four times daily. These footprints can be analyzed in any GIS tool to evaluate the strength, path, and impact of the event as it approaches land. Contact your AIR or Verisk representative to learn more about this and other Verisk Real-Time Analytics that can be paired with ALERT.

NHC Forecast Track and Intensity

While there is still a little spread in the track guidance regarding Henri’s landfall point, it is important to note that —regardless of this storm’s exact landfall location—storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far from the center. After landfall, Henri is expected to slow down and turn east-northeastward tomorrow.

Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday and become post-tropical shortly thereafter.

NHC Forecast Hazards

Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions will begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. Record amounts of rain have already fallen in New York as well as New Jersey, where Henri is a rain event. 

Storm Preparations

The National Guard in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island has been activated or positioned to help with rescues, cleanup, and other support. Power utilities have set up thousands of crews drawn from many states to move in to help with power restoration efforts. New York’s governor declared a state of emergency yesterday. All trains from New York to Boston have been canceled. A voluntary evacuation order was in place yesterday afternoon on Fire Island, a barrier island off Long Island.

AIR Plans

AIR will continue to track Henri and monitor its impacts; however, given the storm’s weakening this morning prior to landfall, this will be the final ALERT for this event.

Pre-Landfall SSEs #3 | Downloads
Posting Date: August 22, 2021, 10:00:00 AM

The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of AIR clients; disclosure to others is prohibited.

Similar Stochastic Event IDs

Note: Event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.

Product	File Type	Description	Download
TOUCHSTONE / TOUCHSTONE Re	Excel (xls)	Selected set of stochastic events

Additional Downloads

Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.

Title	File Type	Description	Download
Henri Scenario Overview	.xls	Insured industry losses, event parameters, a track map, and commentary on today's SSEs.
Henri Track Files	.zip	Track files for today's SSEs for usin in any GIS application.