|Type of posting||Posting date(EST):||Summary||Downloads|
|Updated Similar Stochastic Events||9/22/2022 3:00:00 PM|
|Similar Stochastic Events||9/19/2022 3:00:00 PM|
|Update||9/18/2022 3:00:00 PM|
|Monitoring and Plans||9/15/2022 4:00:00 PM|
Monitoring and Plans | Summary
Posting Date: September 15, 2022, 4:00:00 PM
As of September 15 at 2:00pm EDT, Typhoon Nanmadol is located approximately 400 miles due south of Kyushu Island, Japan, with peak 1-minute sustained winds of 70 knots (~80 mph). Nanmadol is forecast to strengthen steadily over the next three days as it tracks to the northwest. At that point, the forecast is less certain, and there is a wide variety of model solutions in terms of the forward speed of the storm and the point at which is turns to the north then northeast. Given these uncertainties, the timing of Nanmadol’s likely interaction with Japan remains unclear, but most likely some time Sunday into Monday. Assuming the forecast holds, the Verisk ALERT team plans to release similar stochastic events for Typhoon Nanmadol by end of business Monday, U.S. EDT (Tuesday morning in the Asia-Pacific region).