FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2019
Hurricane Dorian
9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 29/13/2019 8:00:00 AM 
Post Landfall 19/10/2019 9:30:00 AM 
Landfall 9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 79/6/2019 9:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 69/5/2019 1:00:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 59/4/2019 11:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 49/3/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 39/2/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 29/1/2019 11:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 18/29/2019 10:30:00 AM 
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Posting Date: 9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM

Hurricane Dorian brushed the Outer Banks of the Carolinas this morning, barely making landfall on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 956 mb and maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. Sustained hurricane-force winds have been reported on Cape Hatteras, along with flooding on Cedar and Harker’s islands. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 11 a.m. EDT, Dorian was moving northeastward over the Atlantic east of North Carolina with a forward speed of 17 mph. Dorian’s forward speed is expected to increase through Saturday as it continues to move away from the coast of North Carolina. The storm is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night before moving across Nova Scotia.

Prior to landfall, several possible tornadoes were reported in parts of the Carolinas Thursday that caused damage in Emerald Isle, a barrier island northeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. Several homes just outside of Wilmington also experienced damage. Firefighters in South Carolina reported damage to vehicles and buildings in Myrtle Beach. Schools in five South Carolina counties were closed, and Myrtle Beach declared a civil emergency. More than 265,000 homes and business in North Carolina and South Carolina were without power Thursday night, and dozens of roads were closed across North Carolina. Virginia Beach ordered a mandatory evacuation for the coastal community of Sandbridge.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, to the North Carolina/Virginia border, as well as Pamlico and Albemarle sounds in North Carolina. According to the NHC, hurricane conditions should end along portions of the North Carolina coast within the next few hours. In northeastern North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia, an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain are expected, with isolated instances of 10 inches.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Nova Scotia and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware; Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point in Maryland southward; Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, Maryland; Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, as well as Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard; and east of Bar Harbor to Eastport, Maine. Tropical storm conditions should continue on the southeastern coast of Virginia for the next several hours and are expected elsewhere in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today; parts of extreme southeastern Massachusetts and Maine within the Warning area may experience tropical storm conditions tonight or early Saturday. According to the NHC, hurricane conditions are possible in Nova Scotia on Saturday. In extreme southeastern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected, and Nova Scotia could see 3 to 5 inches of rain.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for parts of Canada, including Prince Edward Island, Magdalen Islands, Fundy National Park to Shediac, and Francois to Boat Harbour. In Prince Edward Island, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Salter Path, North Carolina, to Poquoson, Virginia; Pamlico and Albemarle sounds in North Carolina; the Neuse and Pamlico rivers in North Carolina; and Hampton Roads, Virginia. From Salter Path to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico rivers, water levels could rise 4 to 7 feet above ground. Water levels could reach 2 to 4 feet above ground from Duck, North Carolina to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Dorian from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Custom event sets, loss-based similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs, and a wind shapefile of the median event for the Caribbean were issued on Friday, September 6, and are available from the "Pre-Landfall 7" posting on the Downloads tab of the ALERT website.

Hurricane Dorian
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