FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2019
Hurricane Dorian
9/3/2019 12:30:00 PM
Type of postingPosting date:time ESTSummaryScenariosDownloads
Post Landfall 29/13/2019 8:00:00 AM 
Post Landfall 19/10/2019 9:30:00 AM 
Landfall 9/6/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 79/6/2019 9:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 69/5/2019 1:00:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 59/4/2019 11:00:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 49/3/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 39/2/2019 12:30:00 PM 
Pre-Landfall 29/1/2019 11:30:00 AM 
Pre-Landfall 18/29/2019 10:30:00 AM 
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Posting Date: 9/3/2019 12:30:00 PM

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 11 a.m. EDT, Dorian had weakened to a Category 2 storm located at 27.1°N, 78.6°W with the southern eyewall still positioned over Grand Bahama Island. Dorian was moving northwestward at 2 mph with a minimum central pressure of 955 mb and maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.

Dorian is expected to move slightly faster toward the northwest or north-northwest later today and tonight, followed by a turn north Wednesday evening and then a turn north-northeast on Thursday morning. The NHC forecast stated that, “On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night.”

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas. According to the NHC, tropical storm and hurricane winds will continue on Grand Bahama Island through tonight. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected in the northwestern Bahamas, as well as isolated rainfall totals of more than 30 inches. Storm surge is expected to raise water levels as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels, accompanied by large destructive waves along the coast. Water levels on the Abacos Islands should begin slowly subsiding today.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Verda Beach, Florida, as well as for north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina. According to the NHC, hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina; north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina; and Albemarle and Pamlico sounds in North Carolina. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday and could spread northward through Thursday. Along the Atlantic Coast from north of West Palm Beach through Georgia, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected, with isolated instances of as much as 9 inches; the coastal Carolinas are expected to receive 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated instances of up to 15 inches.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The combination of storm surge and the tide could raise water levels from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, by 4 to 7 feet. Water levels from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to the Flagler/Volusia County Line could increase by 3 to 5 feet.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for north of Deerfield Beach, Florida, to Jupiter Inlet, Florida, as well as for Ponte Verda Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee, Florida.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download similar stochastic event (SSE) IDs for Hurricane Dorian from the Downloads tab of the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone®, Touchstone Re™, and CATRADER®, SSEs were selected from AIR's standard 10K U.S. Hurricane Model based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

SSEs from the AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for the Caribbean based on event parameters (not industry losses) for exposures in the Abacos Islands and Grand Bahama Island were issued on Monday, September 2, and are available from the “Pre-Landfall 3” posting on the Downloads tab of the ALERT website.

Hurricane Dorian
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