Hurricane Matthew 2016
Status: Closed
Landfall | Summary
Posting Date: October 8, 2016, 4:30:00 PM
Please Note: Event sets for Hurricane Matthew’s impact on onshore properties in the United States were posted this morning, October 8. Twenty-one scenarios were provided based on the October 7th 2:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC. In light of Matthew’s track and meteorological evolution overnight and today, AIR recommends that clients focus on scenario event IDs 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 7. These most representative scenarios are just to the left of the NHC forecast issued yesterday at 2:00 p.m.
Note too, however, that considerable uncertainty remains in storm parameters. The tropical cyclone team will therefore remodel Matthew on Monday, October10, and provide a final event set late on Monday or early Tuesday. ALERT subscribers will be notified when downloads are available.
AIR has also begun modeling Matthew’s impacts in the Caribbean. Event sets and shape files will be provided early next week.
After tracking well off the coast of Georgia overnight, Matthew moved due north toward the South Carolina coast early this morning as a Category 2 hurricane, bringing with it damaging winds and storm surge. Although the storm has weakened throughout the day, it has continued to hug the coast, with parts of the eyewall sometimes onshore, sometimes off. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that landfall occurred at 11:00 a.m. EDT southeast of McClellanville, South Carolina. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 75 mph, just over hurricane status.
In addition to wind damage along the length of Florida into South Carolina, flooding from storm surge will play a major role in the final damage toll, exacerbated by the configuration of the coastline—specifically, the arc from northern Florida to Outer Banks of North Carolina—and two high-tide cycles. Significant surge damage is expected in St. John’s and Duval Counties, Florida, Chatham County, Georgia and Charleston and Beaufort Counties, South Carolina. Nearly 5 feet of storm surge inundation was reported in Ft. Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, and 3.5 feet in the Port of Charleston, South Carolina.
Matthew has also produced rainfall amounts of between 8 and 12 inches in eastern South and North Carolina, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches, bringing with it flash-flooding. In Garden City, Georgia, a 24-hour total of close to 14 inches was recorded; Hilton Head, South Carolina saw 11 inches; nearly 13 inches were recorded in Reevesville, South Carolina.
Reported Impacts
Hurricane Matthew remained offshore of the Florida coast yesterday, with the eyewall and most damaging Category 3 intensity winds away from coastal exposure. Nevertheless, the winds outside the eyewall were strong enough to down trees, powerlines, and signs; strip off awnings, siding, and other non-structural building features; erode beaches and wash away boats and automobiles; and peel the roofs from many homes and businesses up and down the Florida coast from Port St. Lucie to Jacksonville. The closest the center of the storm came to onshore properties in Florida was 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral where NASA’s rocket launch facility experienced damage to roofs, windows, and siding, as well as some water intrusion.
In Georgia, Matthew tracked further offshore, but that did not prevent a dome of water from being pushed into river inlets and low-lying areas near Savannah. More than a foot of rain fell in some locations, leaving roads inundated.
The storm has left nearly 2 million homes and businesses without power across the region. Nine people have died, six of them in Florida despite the fact that more than 1.5 million Floridians had been ordered to evacuate ahead of Matthew’s arrival. It had been more than ten years since a major hurricane threatened Florida, which may have left some residents complacent; in addition Matthew’s track took it to areas with little or no precedence of hurricane occurrence.
In Jacksonville and surrounding towns, decisions will be made on Sunday—after detailed damage assessments—whether schools will reopen on Monday. In St. Johns County, residents were told to boil water after storm surge contaminated wells. Schools in several counties in South Carolina will remain closed on Monday.
Damage assessments are only now underway and it will be some time before the full impact of the storm is known.
Forecast and Intensity
At 8:00 p.m. EDT, the center of Matthew is located east of Cape Fear, North Carolina. Matthew is forecasted by the NHC to weaken to a tropical storm over the next 12 hours, and then continue out to sea and dissipate on Monday. Not before, however, Matthew delivers as much as 20 inches of rainfall in isolated parts of North Carolina, which is already leading to record-breaking flooding. Many of the forecast models on Friday suggested that Matthew would loop southward, possibly impacting the Bahamas or even southern Florida again later this week. However, there is now a consensus that Matthew, or its post-tropical remnants, will be absorbed by a frontal system along with Tropical Storm Nicole in the open Atlantic and away from land.