Hurricane Matthew 2016
Status: Closed
Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 3, 2016, 9:45:00 AM
Category 4 Hurricane Matthew continued on a slow but relentless track through the Caribbean Monday, October 3, as it approached Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba with 140 mph winds and torrential rain. As those countries raced to prepare for this dangerous storm, bands of high wind and heavy rain, as well as rough seas, began their onslaught. Landfall is possible on the western tip of Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula Monday night or early Tuesday, October 4, and near Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, sometime Tuesday.
Track map for Hurricane Matthew as of 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday, October 3. (Source: NHC)
Matthew moved west-southwest as a Category 3 storm at the end of last week, on an unusual southern track north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao and close enough to South America to impact Colombia. As predicted, over the weekend the storm took a turn north and began to cross the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba. Matthew briefly intensified to a Category 5 storm on Saturday, with 160 mph winds, the most powerful storm in the Atlantic since Category 5 Hurricane Felix in 2007.
Thus far, two people have died from the storm, one on the island of St. Vincent, the other in Colombia.
Reported Damage and Disruption
Hurricane Matthew had moved within 200 miles of the southeast of Jamaica and the capital of Kingston by Monday morning, as it slogged north at 6 mph with a central pressure of 941 mb. At that time, Jamaica and parts of Haiti had begun to feel the wrath of a storm the National Hurricane Center (NHC) termed “extremely dangerous.” Although the storm had weakened somewhat over the weekend from Category 5 strength, it is expected to remain a Category 4 storm at least into Tuesday.
Total rainfall from Matthew is expected to be extremely high for all three countries, which could result in flash floods and mudslides. Storm surge will impact coastal areas also, with 3-6 feet of surge expected and 10-15 feet possible in some areas. Waves riding atop storm surge will exacerbate the impact of the high water, and in some instances storm surge could prevent rainfall runoff, thus intensifying flooding.
For Jamaica, Hurricane Matthew is the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. In addition to issuing hurricane warnings for the entire country, Jamaican officials have opened storm shelters and made repeated pleas to residents to leave the coast. Already high surf has resulted in some road closures, including the road linking Kingston, the capital, to its airport. The NHC projects 5 to 10 inches of rain for Jamaica, with upwards of 15 inches possible in some locales.
Haiti, too, has issued hurricane warnings for the entire country, amid fears of a catastrophic impact on a country that still is recovering from a calamitous 2010 M7.0 earthquake. Over the weekend evacuations began for residents on outlying islands, and airports are expected to close as conditions worsen. The NHC projects rainfall of 8 to 12 inches in western Haiti, with some regions seeing as much as 20 inches.
For Cuba, hurricane warnings have been issued for Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas provinces; a hurricane watch was issued for Camaguey Province. Many residents of coastal areas already have evacuated, and residents of the Sierra Maestra Mountains have been warned about possible mudslides. The U.S. government has evacuated hundreds of people from the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base. Eastern Cuba should experience rainfall similar to western Haiti, 8 to 12 inches in most areas, with 20 inches possible.
Exposure at Risk
Caribbean residential building stock is dependent on exposure location—urban or rural—within an island, and some regional differences exist. Older urban structures across the Caribbean exhibit a wide variety of construction materials, but the majority of new residential buildings are made of masonry, reinforced concrete, or both. There are diverse roofing practices across the Caribbean, with the most common type for residential structures being timber with metal roof covering, applied with corrugated or standing seam.
Most commercial structures in the Caribbean are low- to mid-rise, comprising one to six stories. Small apartments, hotels, offices, and other low-rise commercial properties are usually masonry, or reinforced or block concrete. As with residential buildings, wide regional variability should be expected.
Despite similar building types and stock across the Caribbean, building code type, use, and enforcement can vary substantially. Structures that are built to the local codes and building standards are not immune from damage, but damage will likely be limited to roof covering, wall cladding, and unprotected windows. Similar damage would also be expected for larger commercial structures.
Of the three islands with imminent impact from Hurricane Matthew, Haiti, with low or minimal building regulation enforcement, has the greatest vulnerability to tropical cyclone wind and rain.
Forecast Track and Intensity
Hurricane Matthew should remain a major hurricane—at least Category 3—as it crosses Cuba and moves over the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Hurricane warnings have been posted in the southeast Bahamas; hurricane watches have been issued for central Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos islands.
Projections beyond the Bahamas remain uncertain. Although some models suggest a strong U.S. mainland impact—perhaps even landfall on Florida—most models show the storm easing eastward as it approaches the United States mainland. Nonetheless, Florida Governor Rick Scott has called the storm “catastrophic” and is encouraging residents to prepare.