Hurricane Matthew 2016
Status: Closed
Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: October 4, 2016, 9:00:00 AM
Similar stochastic events for Hurricane Matthew will be posted late this week after the storm has run its course through the Caribbean. ALERTTM subscribers will be notified when they are available. Note that these events will be an appropriate match from our stochastic catalog and selected based on event parameters (not industry losses) and should be used only for exposures in the Caribbean.
Powerful winds, heavy rain, and significant storm surge pounded the southeastern coast of Haiti for hours before Hurricane Matthew made landfall to the west of Les Cayeson on the Tiburon Peninsula at just after 7:20 a.m. ET. It came ashore as a Category 4 storm with hurricane-force winds impacting a radius of up to 40 miles from the eye of the storm and tropical storm-force winds extending as far as 185 miles. Its painfully slow forward progress means that it will take much of the day to pass through Haiti, exacerbating its impact on this highly vulnerable nation.
Likely Impacts
Haiti is smaller than the state of Maryland and has a population of more than 10 million; it is the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere. Officials claim that some 1,300 emergency shelters accommodating about 340,000 people have been built, but people were clearly slow to leave their homes in advance of the storm, either because they underestimated its severity or feared losing their possessions. Only about 6,000 people have moved to temporary shelters according to Haiti's civil protection service. Because of its low or minimal building regulation enforcement, Haiti is extremely vulnerable to tropical cyclone wind and rain. In addition to the many people living in shanties, thousands are still living in tents following the massive earthquake in 2010.
As well as wind damage, significant storm surge is occurring and there are no sea defenses in Haiti. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast storm surge of 7 to 10 feet in places along the south coast and 3 to 5 feet in the Gulf of Gonave. In addition, heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Matthew is expected to drop as much as 20 inches of rain on lowlands and up to 40 inches in higher elevations. Because more than 98% of the country is deforested and much of the terrain is mountainous Haiti is highly vulnerable to landslides and mudslides. Coastal flooding and 10-foot storm surge waves have already been reported in coastal towns, as well as downed trees, power outages, and roof damage to homes, but it is far too early for comprehensive damage reports to emerge.
No plans have been announced to change the date for the already long-delayed presidential election set for October 9.
Track map for Hurricane Matthew as of 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, October 4. (Source: NHC)
Forecast Track and Intensity
Models still disagree about Matthew’s future progress, but the system will continue to move north, directly impacting the Bahamas tomorrow and threatening the East Coast of the U.S. later in the week. It is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.
Projections beyond the Bahamas remain uncertain. Although some models suggest a strong U.S. mainland impact—perhaps even landfall on Florida—most models show the storm easing eastward as it approaches the United States mainland. A state of emergency has been declared in Florida and for 66 North Carolina counties.
The AIR tropical cyclone team will continue to monitor Hurricane Matthew and provide updates as warranted.