Hurricane Matthew 2016
Status: Closed
Pre-Landfall 5 | Summary
Posting Date: October 6, 2016, 9:00:00 AM
Having impacted Haiti and Cuba, Hurricane Matthew is now progressing through the Bahamas. The eye of the storm will move northwestward today, passing near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas this morning and near Grand Bahama Island later in the day. Matthew is currently a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and is expected to remain Category 4 as it nears the east coast of Florida.
Forecast Track and Intensity
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the storm’s center and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 160 miles. In addition to hurricane strength winds, the Central and Northwestern Bahamas are expected to experience 8 to 12 inches of rain, with totals of up to 15 inches in isolated areas. Storm surge of 10 to 15 feet is anticipated, with battering waves exacerbating the potential for damage. Similar surge levels were experienced in parts of the Bahamas during Hurricane Joaquin last year, but the current surge will impact all of the island chain.
Figure 1. Hurricane Matthew five-day track, as of 11 a.m. on October 6, 2016. (Source: NOAA)
Matthew has now been a major (Category 3 or greater) hurricane for six days, something no Atlantic cyclone has managed to achieve since 1963. Models now show Matthew “riding” the coast of Florida as far as Georgia. Even if no actual landfall occurs, the storm will pass close enough to the coast to have similar impacts and it could be a very significant event. Matthew’s radius of maximum winds is only about 10 miles, which makes it an extremely tight storm and the impact it will have will depend on how close it comes to the coast. A broad trough approaching the Great Lakes region is expected to steer the cyclone’s track first northeastward on Saturday, and then eastward and southeastward, rotating it away from the coast of North Carolina, and perhaps back toward Florida next week. Florida is expected to start experiencing hurricane conditions later today, and they will spread northward through Friday.
Preparations and Exposure at Risk
Many shelters have been set up across the Bahamas; residents of southern coastlines on every island have been advised to move and some evacuation orders have been issued. Government offices in New Providence and Grand Bahama closed until further notice on Tuesday. Controlled shutdowns of electrical service have begun and several cruise ships heading for the Bahamas have changed their itineraries
In Nassau and Freeport—parts of the Bahamas likely to see major impacts from Matthew—there are numerous high-value resorts. The majority of residential construction in the Bahamas is reinforced masonry, with the rest wood frame, unreinforced masonry, reinforced concrete, steel, and light metal. The Bahamas has a comprehensive building code, the Bahamas Building Code, which was initially based on the rigid South Florida Building Code and has since been updated to follow the ASCE 7 standards. Moreover the Bahamas Building Code accounts for wind loading up to 150 mph on various engineered structures; this code is strictly enforced.
The east coast of Florida is bracing itself for what may well be the strongest winds experienced in decades. Hurricane warnings have been extended northward to St. Simons Island and Brunswick, Georgia, and hurricane watches now extend to just north of Charleston, South Carolina. In addition to hurricane-strength winds, heavy rain and storm surges are expected along the coast. Schools and airports across the region have already closed, and some hospitals have been evacuated. Hundreds of flights in and out of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Orlando have been canceled.
Florida has a long history of evolving building codes. The state’s codes since 2002 have been based on the International Building and Residential Code. Building structural capacities appeared to have improved since Hurricane Andrew (1992) because of stronger building codes and better enforcement, resulting in less structural damage overall even from intense hurricanes during the 2004-2005 hurricane season. AIR expects newer structures in the region will perform better than older structures.
Residential construction in Florida is dominated by wood-frame and masonry construction, the latter being better resistant to withstand high winds in comparison to the former. In 2004, several hurricanes —among them Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne—struck some of the areas on the east coast of Florida that hurricane Matthew is likely to impact. As in the case of the 2004 hurricane season, significant damage may be expected to roof covers related to installation and attachment methods. Manufactured homes are vulnerable to significant damage during hurricanes, as was evident in the same region during the 2004 hurricane season. Manufactured housing performance tends to be a function of its age and of the regulations under which the home was constructed and installed.
The AIR tropical cyclone team will continue to monitor Hurricane Matthew and provide updates as warranted.