Hurricane Beryl

Post-Landfall Custom Events | Summary
Posting Date: July 19, 2024, 6:00:00 AM

Verisk estimates industry insured losses to onshore property from wind in the U.S. for Hurricane Beryl will range between USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion.

ALERT™ subscribers can now download Touchstone® and Touchstone Re™ event sets, loss-based similar stochastic events (SSEs), and a wind footprint shapefile of the median event for the wind impacts from Hurricane Beryl from the Downloads tab for this posting on the ALERT Website. The loss-based SSEs are recommended primarily for exposures in Texas. The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of Verisk clients; disclosure to others is prohibited unless noted in your Verisk software license.

Modeling Information and Assumptions

Included in the industry insured loss estimate are losses to onshore residential, commercial, industrial properties and automobiles for their building, contents, and time element coverage from wind only, as well as the impact of demand surge. The underlying industry exposures are as of December 31, 2023.  See below for additional information.

The headline industry losses in this summary are slightly adjusted upward from the actual modeled losses to account for non-modeled insured storm surge and precipitation flood losses, as well as for any impacts from the widespread and extended power outages that may not be already implicitly captured in the modeling.  Direct modeled loss estimates can be found in the ‘Hurricane Beryl Custom Modeled Scenarios Information’ download.

Verisk’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

• Excess impacts due to power failures which may not be implicitly modeled
• Losses from storm surge
• Losses paid out by the National Flood Insurance Program
• Losses exacerbated by litigation, fraudulent assignment of benefits, or social inflation
• Storm surge leakage losses paid on wind only policies due to government intervention
• Losses from precipitation-induced flooding
• Losses to inland marine, ocean-going marine cargo and hull, and pleasure boats
• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Losses from extra-contractual obligations
• Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether directly or indirectly caused by the event
• Losses resulting from the compromise of existing defenses (e.g., natural and man-made levees)
• Loss adjustment expenses
• Other non-modeled losses, including those resulting from tornadoes spawned by the storm
• Losses for U.S. offshore assets and non-U.S. property

Meteorological History of Beryl

Beryl formed on the evening of June 28th over 1,000 miles east-southeast of Barbados, quickly becoming a hurricane on the 29th and strengthening into a major hurricane on the 30th. On the 1st, Beryl passed through the Windward Islands as a Category 4 hurricane and would go on to become a Category 5 hurricane later that day, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic. On the morning of the 2nd, Beryl reached its peak intensity with 165 mph sustained winds before beginning to slowly weaken later in the day as the storm encountered increasing wind shear. Wind shear continued to slowly weaken Beryl on the 3rd as the center of the hurricane passed just south of Jamaica as a major hurricane. On the 4th, Beryl continued its west-northwest track across the western Caribbean, weakening to a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.  Overnight into the 5th, a slight re-intensification took place that saw Beryl briefly reclaim major hurricane status as a low-end Category 3 just as the storm began to impact the Yucatan Peninsula.  At around 5am central, Beryl made landfall near Cozumel, Mexico and proceeded along its consistent west-northwest track inland into the Yucatan Peninsula at 16 mph.  Beryl’s structure quickly deteriorated as it tracked overland, weakening to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph by the time it emerged into the Gulf of Mexico that evening.  Beryl’s intensity was held in check overnight by its lack of organization.

On the 6th, Beryl slowly began the process of reorganization; in the morning, it was a significantly tilted storm with exposed circulation but by the evening deep convection had returned. Its long-anticipated turn to the north began in earnest on the 6th as a weakening in the subtropical ridge over the Southeast allowed for Beryl to take a northwestward track.  This turn continued into the 7th, bringing Beryl within 150 miles of south Texas that morning as it charged north-northwestward toward the Texas central coast.  Despite tracking through an environment with favorable conditions for intensification, Beryl’s imperfect structure played a role in the storm only strengthening to a fledgling Category 1 hurricane before making landfall near Matagorda Bay, Texas at around 4:00 am CDT on July 8th.  At landfall, Beryl had estimated maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and a central pressure of 979 mb.  Subsequently, the storm tracked north as it made its way inland.

Impacts on the Built Environment

Widespread and prolonged power outages in Texas are likely to be a legacy of Beryl’s arrival in Texas.  At peak, nearly three million customers lost power in Texas from Beryl, with more than 2.2 million in Harris County alone.  Residents were left without electricity for several days in most cases, which combined with typical summer humidity and sweltering temperatures made a dire situation for some.  At least six people have died in Texas so far from the storm including from downed trees, flooding, and fires caused by lightning. The outages could well drive significant claims due to food spoilage, mold, and losses to additional living expense and business interruption coverages. Heavy rainfall has led to roadways and homes becoming flooded throughout the Houston area into portions of western Louisiana. In terms of wind, there were reports of tree damage to roofs. Moderate levels of wind damage in the form of broken windows, and tree damage to residential and apartment complexes around Highway 190 and Highway 63 were observed.

Other Verisk Resources for Hurricane Beryl

Verisk Respond Hurricane Data

Verisk’s Respond Hurricane solution uses a multi-input model to provide a comprehensive and accurate view of tropical cyclone winds. The solution couples a five-day forecast of wind with a post-event view to provide a full wind field understanding of the impacts that have already occurred alongside the potential impacts that have yet to occur from a tropical system. The Respond Hurricane solution updates every six hours for any named storm in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Wind information is expressed both in terms of one-minute sustained wind speeds as well as three-second wind gusts. In addition, wind speed durations of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm force), 50 mph or greater, and 74 mph or greater (hurricane force) are also conveyed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the wind threat.

In the event of a landfalling U.S. hurricane, within 24 hours of downgrade of the system to a tropical depression or post-tropical system, the Verisk Respond Hurricane maximum wind gust data are corrected by assimilating actual wind observations from multiple sources into the wind field to bias and error correct the modeled estimate. Special consideration is taken in this process to ensure the wind observations being incorporated accurately reflect the conditions at the location at a 10-meter height. This final maximum wind gust field will not only more closely match the assimilated observations, but final wind field values will be more accurate in general across the entire wind field, although typical differences between the modeled estimates and the observation-corrected post-storm are 10% or less.

Please contact your Verisk representative for more information on Verisk’s Respond product.

Additional Plans for Beryl

No additional ALERT postings are planned for Beryl at this time.  Please contact your Verisk representative with additional questions about this event.

Post-Landfall Custom Events | Downloads
Posting Date: July 19, 2024, 6:00:00 AM

The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of Verisk clients; disclosure to others is prohibited.

Simulated Event Sets

These event sets contain three custom modeled scenarios for Hurricane Beryl, allowing for uncertainty in key model parameters such as radius of maximum winds and central pressure.  All scenarios follow the official NHC track.

Product	Description	Download
Touchstone Re	Selected set of simulated scenarios
Touchstone	Selected set of simulated scenarios

Loss Based Similar Stochastic Event IDs

These stochastic events were selected as best matches to the insured industry loss footprints generated by the custom modeled scenarios in the Simulated Event Set

Product	File Type	Description	Download
Touchstone / Re	Excel (xls)	Selected set of stochastic events, with Readme in Excel format
Touchstone / Re	CSV (csv)	Selected set of stochastic events, formatted for import into Touchstone/Re

Additional Downloads

Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.

Title	File Type	Description	Download
Hurricane Beryl Modeled Wind Shapefile	.zip	A shapefile for the median loss scenario wind footprint from the Simulated Event Set
Hurricane Beryl Custom Modeled Scenarios Information	.xlsx	Event parameters and modeled insured industry loss estimates for the three custom scenarios for Hurricane Beryl found in the Simulated Event Sets.